Coalition maintains a narrow lead over ALP on the Australia Day long weekend: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%
A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with an unchanged two-party preferred vote from a week ago: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Although primary support for the Coalition dropped 1.5% to 40.5% and ALP support was up 1% to 29.5%, the movements for the left-wing and right-wing minor parties cancelled this trend out.
Support for the left-leaning Greens dropped 1.5% to 11.5% while support for the right-leaning One Nation was up 2% to 6%. Other Parties were down 0.5% to 3.5% while support for Independents increased 0.5% to 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The key issues of the week including concerns about rising antisemitism in the community and the long-awaited ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as well as the annual debate about Australia Day, didn’t impact the two-party preferred result, which was unchanged.
“However, there was movement on primary voting intention. On the right, the Coalition lost support, down 1.5% to 40.5%, but One Nation picked up support, increasing 2% to 6%. While on the left the ALP gained 1% to 29.5%, but the Greens dropped 1.5% to 11.5%. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens for over a year since late 2023.
“Greens Leader Adam Bandt has been largely silent on the rising problem of antisemitism in the community and last week credited Australian street protests with helping bring about the current ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,567 Australian electors from January 20-26, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% (down 2% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result shows an even closer result with the Coalition on 51% (down 1%) ahead of the ALP on 49% (up 1%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
