Coalition boosts primary support and retains clear two-party preferred lead for Christmas: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%
A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with the two-party preferred vote unchanged from last week: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 41% this week – the highest it has been since the last Federal Election. The increase in primary support for the Coalition came largely at the expense of One Nation, but also due to drops in support for the ALP, Greens and Other Parties which all lost support.
ALP support was down 0.5% to 27.5%, Greens support was down 0.5% to 12.5%, support for One Nation dropped 1.5% to 5% and support for Other Parties was down 0.5% to 3.5%. Support for Independents remained steady at 10.5%.
There were several issues driving the improved performance for the Coalition.
During the last week the debate over the torching of a Melbourne synagogue dominated media headlines and many accused Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of being slow to respond and slow to criticise the attack whereas the Coalition was on the front foot early and calling out the horrendous act.
There was also a decision by the Reserve Bank to leave interest rates unchanged again which disappointed many mortgage holders struggling with the cost of living and the Coalition announced its plans for nuclear energy which they say will reduce energy costs long-term.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention shows the Coalition primary vote rising to its highest since the last Federal Election – and taking support directly from the other major parties, and especially One Nation.
“The rise in Coalition primary support solidifies the party’s lead on a two-party preferred basis and came after the Reserve Bank again left interest rates on hold last week and the Coalition outlined its energy plan to bring in nuclear power and lower energy costs the consumer long-term.
“Although there has been plenty of arguments regarding whether the Coalition’s proposals to bring in nuclear energy are viable, the strengthening in support for the party suggests the public are receptive to the argument that nuclear energy will result in lower electricity prices.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,672 Australian electors from December 9-15, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% (up 0.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result shows a clear lead for the Coalition on 51.5% (up 1.5%) ahead of the ALP on 48.5% (down 1.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
