ALP regains two-party preferred lead as Prime Minister Albanese travels to the APEC and G20 Summits
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP 51% (up 2% points from a week ago) narrowly ahead of the Coalition 49% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The close result this week, and the large size of the crossbench (currently 16 seats) means either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government.
ALP primary support recovered this week, up 2.5% to 31.5% at the expense of the Coalition, down 2% to 37%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 12.5%.
One Nation support was unchanged at 6.5%, support for Other Parties was down 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents increased 1% to 8.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention shows the ALP with a narrow two-party preferred lead nationally: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travelled to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and Group of 20 leadership forums in South America.
“Albanese met up with key world leaders including US President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the summits held back-to-back in mid-November.
“The Roy Morgan Poll has observed over many years that leaders often receive a lift in support when meeting with important global leaders – although this effect usually proves short-lived.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,663 Australian electors from November 18-24, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 7% (down 0.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result moves slightly further in favour of the Government with the ALP on 51.5% (up 1.5% from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (down 1.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
