Coalition takes lead from Labor as Prime Minister Albanese deals with Qantas flight upgrades scandal
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the Coalition 51% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) narrowly ahead of the ALP 49% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Today’s Roy Morgan survey shows a second consecutive weekly swing to the Coalition with the party now enjoying a small lead. However, the large size of the cross-bench (currently 16 seats) means either major party would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government.
Primary vote support increased for both major parties with Coalition support up 0.5% to 38% and ALP support up 0.5% to 30.5%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 14% and One Nation support increased 0.5% to 6%.
Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4% but support for Independents dropped 1.5% to 7.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The latest Federal voting intention shows Coalition support increasing nationally for a second straight week and now with a narrow lead: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. However, the swing to the Coalition came from the changing preferences of supporters of independents and minor parties as the primary votes of both major parties increased slightly.
“The big news dominating the headlines last week surrounded Prime Minister Anthony Albanese allegedly asking for flight upgrades from Qantas and former CEO Alan Joyce. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has denied contacting anyone at Qantas, including Joyce, to ask for any upgrades.
“Nevertheless, the scandal has detracted from a potential good news story for the Albanese Government – the official ABS quarterly inflation dropped 1% to 2.8% for the September quarter 2024 – the lowest figure for over three years since the early days of the pandemic.
“However, despite the drop in inflation, the Reserve Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Melbourne Cup Day given that the core inflation measure, the ‘trimmed mean’, remains above the 2-3% target range at 3.4%.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,651 Australian electors from October 28 – November 3, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% (down 1.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
The Roy Morgan survey allocates preferences based on how people say they will vote today as we believe it is important to measure the pulse of the nation at this point in time given the full candidate and party lists for the next election are not yet known.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is reversed in favour of the ALP on 51% (down 0.5% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP 49% (up 0.5% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
