Federal voting intention remains tied in mid-October: Coalition 50% cf. ALP 50%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP 50% (unchanged from a week ago) tied with the Coalition 50% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This week’s result continues a run of close results stretching back over four months since mid-June. Neither major party has held a decisive election-winning lead above 52% two-party preferred since the first week of June.
Today's result shows how important preference flows will be in determining which major party is best placed to form government with the support of minor parties and independents after the next federal election.
ALP primary vote support dropped 1.5% points to 30% while Coalition was unchanged on 37.5%. Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 14% while One Nation increased 0.5% to 6%.
Support for Other Parties dropped 0.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
”The latest Federal voting intention for mid-October continues to show a tight race between the two major parties – tied again at 50% each on a two-party preferred basis.
“Neither party has held a decisive two-party preferred lead for over four months since early June although the Coalition (37.5%) has a clear primary vote lead over the ALP (30%) – by 7.5% points. However, it’s worth remembering that the Coalition had a primary vote over 3% points higher than the ALP at the last Federal Election – and still lost.
“The overall results continue to point to a divided and ‘Hung Parliament’ with the cross-bench being called upon to decide which major party will form Australia’s next government.
“Looking at a State level, the Coalition holds clear two-party preferred leads in the resource States of Queensland and Western Australia, the ALP leads clearly in the Southern States of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania whereas in Australia’s largest State of New South Wales the two major parties are tied.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,697 Australian electors from October 7-13, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (down 1% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is in favour of the ALP on 51% (down 1% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP 49% (up 1% point from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
