Federal voting intention virtually unchanged this week with ALP (50.5%) marginally ahead of the Coalition (49.5%)
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 50.5% (unchanged) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Although the two-party preferred result remained unchanged, there was an improvement in the ALP primary vote at the expense of the Independents, One Nation and other minor parties.
The close overall result means either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government. The result again shows the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
ALP primary vote increased 1.5% to 32% while Coalition support was unchanged at 37.5%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 12.5% while One Nation was down 0.5% at 5%.
Support for Other Parties dropped 0.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents was down 0.5% to 9.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Australian voting intentions are unchanged on a two-party preferred basis this week with the ALP on 50.5% marginally ahead of the L-NP on 49.5%. Although the ALP is leading, if this result were repeated at an election, we would end up with a hung parliament for the first time in over a decade.
“Although the two-party preferred result is unchanged, the ALP has gained primary vote support, up 1.5% to 32% at the expense of the Independents, One Nation and other minor parties. Coalition support remains unchanged, and well ahead of the ALP, at 37.5%.
“The ALP’s narrow two-party preferred advantage is drawn by higher support amongst women. Women support the ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% – a difference of 7% points. In comparison, men favour the L-NP by a narrower margin of 4% points: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,662 Australian electors from September 16-22, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 7.5% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the ALP is further ahead and almost dead-level with the result at the last Federal Election: ALP: 52% (unchanged from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48% (unchanged from a week ago).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
