Federal voting intention virtually unchanged this week with ALP (50.5%) marginally ahead of the Coalition (49.5%); but Greens lost support after violent protests
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 50.5% (down 0.5%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
There was a slight movement to the Coalition on a two-party preferred result this week, however, the overall result is ‘too close to call’ and either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government. The result again shows the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
The primary vote of both major parties was up this week – mainly at the expense of the Greens. ALP primary vote increased 0.5% to 30.5% while Coalition support increased 1% to 37.5%. Support for the Greens dropped 2% to 12.5% while One Nation was down 0.5% at 5.5%.
Support for Other Parties increased 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 10%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Australian voting intentions are little changed on a two-party preferred basis with the ALP on 50.5% marginally ahead of the L-NP on 49.5%. Although the ALP is leading, if this result were repeated at an election, we would end up with a hung parliament for the first time in over a decade.
“The biggest move this week was for the Greens – with their primary vote down 2% to 12.5% and its lowest for over a month. This result came after violent protests and riots in Melbourne surrounding the Land Forces weapons exhibition. Support for both major parties increased this week.
“Greens Senator from New South Wales, David Shoebridge, spoke at the protests which led to shocking scenes over several days on the nightly news, dozens of protesters arrested for assault, obstruction or hindering, and over two dozen police officers requiring medical care.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,634 Australian electors from September 9-15, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (down 1% point from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the ALP is further ahead and almost dead-level with the result at the last Federal Election: ALP: 52% (unchanged from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48% (unchanged from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
