Federal voting intention: ALP (50.5%) now marginally ahead of the Coalition (49.5%) after Albanese Government’s strong stance on putting the CFMEU into administration
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 50.5% (up 1%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This was a reverse of last week’s results after the Albanese Government’s strong stance on placing the CFMEU into administration last week; however the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government. The result once again highlights the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
The ALP primary vote increased 1% to 30.5% while Coalition support dropped 3.5% to 36% - its lowest for nearly three months. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 13% while the biggest beneficiary of the Coalition’s drop-in support was One Nation, up 2% to 6%.
Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 5% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 9.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Once again people’s voting intention remains almost dead-locked this week. However, the Albanese Government’s decision to introduce legislation to Parliament forcing the appointment of an administrator for the CFMEU’s construction division, led to raucous rallies in support of the CFMEU around the country – also led to a small boost in support for the ALP.
“Support for the ALP increased 1% to 30.5% and closed the gap on the Coalition which was down 3.5% to 36% on primary support. It was One Nation that gained the most from the Coalition’s drop-in support – up 2% to 6% and ensuring the overall two-party preferred result remained close.
“However, once preferences are distributed the result still shows the country on track for a hung Parliament after the next election. The ALP on 50.5% is only marginally ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
“Given over a third of the electorate (33.5%, up 2.5% from a week ago) plan to vote for a minor party or independent at the next election it will be the preference deals and negotiations that will be of utmost importance over the next six to nine months.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,697 Australian electors from August 26 – September 1, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 8% (up 2.5% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the contest is all tied up with two-party preferred result dead-even: ALP: 52% (up 2% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48% (down 2% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
