Federal voting intention: ALP (50.5%) marginally ahead of Coalition (49.5%), but ‘too close to call’
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 50.5% (up 0.5%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. The result once again highlights the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
The Coalition primary vote increased by 0.5% to 38.5% while ALP primary support was up 1% to 30.5%. Support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5% and support for One Nation was down 1% to 4%.
Support for Other Parties increased 1% to 5% and support for Independents was down 1% to 8.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“In a week that the political debate was about Palestinian refugees there’s been little change in voting intention. The main issues that people are really concerned about are closer to home including cost-of-living, high inflation and interest rates.
“Support for both major parties strengthened this week with ALP support up 1% to 30.5% and Coalition support up 0.5% to 38.5%. The net result is a slight movement to the ALP on a two-party preferred basis although the overall result is once again ‘too close to call’.
“The most likely election result based on this week’s voting patterns is for a hung Parliament after the election – and this has been the case for some time now.
“Neither party has enjoyed a decisive lead on two-party preferred terms for over two months since early June with the last ten weeks throwing up a series of close results and highlighting the importance of preference flows to determining the final outcome of the election due next year.
“The two-party preferred results by gender continue to show a significant difference and the ALP’s advantage amongst Women hands the party a slight edge. Women favour the ALP by 11% points: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% whereas men favour the Coalition by 8% points: L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,698 Australian electors from August 12-18, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 8.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the ALP slightly increases its two-party preferred result: ALP: 51% (unchanged from a week ago) cf. L-NP 49% (unchanged from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
