Labor edges further ahead as inflation is lower than expected and interest rates set to remain unchanged: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a narrow win for the Labor Party with the ALP on 51.5% (up 1%) ahead of the Coalition on 48.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Although neither major party increased their support this week, the flow of preferences from minor parties tipped further in favour of the ALP, once again highlighting the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
The Coalition primary vote decreased by 0.5% to 37% while ALP primary support was unchanged at 30.5%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 12% and support for One Nation was down 1% to 5.5%.
It was smaller parties and independents that gained support. Support for Other Parties was up 1% to 5% and support for Independents increased 1.5% to 10% - the highest level it has been so far this year.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Last week’s keenly anticipated ABS official Inflation figures for the June Quarter brought some welcome good news for Australian mortgage-holders. Official inflation came in at 3.8% for the year to June 2024 – lower than the 4% many economists had predicted.
“The lower-than-expected inflation result has taken the pressure of the RBA to raise interest rates again this week and the Albanese Government will be breathing a sigh of relief that interest rates may have already peaked as they get set to face an election early in 2025.
“Although it’s difficult to quantify in a political sense, a record-breaking week for Australian Olympians over the last week has provided a sporting boost to the nation and certainly hasn’t hurt support for the Government.
“However, although the ALP is ahead on a two-party preferred basis, the margin over the Coalition remains narrow and primary support for the Government remains low at only 30.5% – down over 2% points from the last Federal Election.
“Support for minor parties and independents continues to increase and this week the support for Independents increased 1.5% to 10% – the highest level of support all year. Nearly a third of electors, 32.5% (up 0.8% points since the last election), now support minor parties or independents.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,655 Australian electors from July 29 – August 4, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 8% (unchanged from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is identical for the first time since June: ALP: 51.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 0.5% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
