Federal Election is ‘too close to call’: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament and ‘too close to call’ with the Coalition on 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
The ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Primary support for the Coalition dropped 2% to 37.5% this week while the ALP increased 2.5% to 31%. Support for the Greens was down 1% to 12.5%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 5%, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Albanese Government regained lost ground this week after the long-awaited Stage 3 tax cuts started hitting consumer’s fortnightly pay packets providing a significant boost in take-home income for millions of working Australians.
“There was also a return to relative normality for the government after a week of infighting surrounding the issue of Palestinian Statehood eventually led to the resignation from the party of former Labor Senator Fatima Payman. Senator Payman is now an independent Senator from Western Australia.
“The tightness of the overall contest, and the crucial role of preferences, is illustrated by how the different methods for calculating an estimated two-party preferred result give the advantage to one side or the other.
“When the two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing preferences for minor party and independents according to respondent preferences – the Coalition retains a narrow lead (L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%).
“However, when the two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the preferences for minor party and independent candidates based on preference flows at the last Federal Election – the ALP gains an advantage (ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%).”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,758 Australian electors from July 8-14, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (down 2% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result favours the Albanese Government: ALP: 51.5% (up 2% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
