Federal voting intentions unchanged after release of Julian Assange and higher than expected inflation figures: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%
The Albanese Government has retained a narrow lead over the Coalition on two-party preferred terms: ALP 51% (unchanged) cf. Coalition 49% (unchanged), the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
The unchanged result came after the unexpected release of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange last week as well as higher than expected ABS monthly inflation figure at 4% led to talk that the Reserve Bank may have to again raise interest rates.
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the ALP likely to form a minority government with the support of minor parties and independents.
Primary support for the Coalition was down 0.5% to 36.5% this week while the ALP was unchanged on 31.5%. Support for the Greens was also unchanged at 13%.
Support for One Nation dropped 1.5% to 4.5%, support for Other Parties increased 1.5% to 5.5% and support for Independents increased 0.5% to 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“There was plenty of political news last week but the net effect on Federal voting intentions was unchanged – ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% – the release of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange dominated media coverage for several days.
“Followed by the official monthly ABS inflation for May 2024 showed annual inflation at 4%, up from 3.6% a month earlier, and led to calls from many economists for the Reserve Bank to resume raising interest rates.
“An Albanese Government margin of 51%-49% at the next Federal Election would lead to a hung Parliament with the support of minor party and independents required to form government.”
“This week millions of Australians will start receiving income tax cuts. The Albanese Government is clearly hoping the extra household income will strengthen the support for the party in a community with many Australians dealing with a high cost of living.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,708 Australian electors from June 24-30, 2024. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result skews further towards the Labor Party. ALP: 52.5% (unchanged from a week ago) cf. L-NP 47.5% (unchanged from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
