ALP Government strengthens its two-party preferred lead over the Coalition to the largest for three months: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%
The Albanese Government has increased its two-party preferred lead over the Coalition: ALP 53.5% (up 1.5%) ahead of the Coalition 46.5% (down 1.5%). If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with an increased majority, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
Support for the Albanese Government improved for a second straight week on a two-party preferred basis to its highest for over three months in the first week of March.
For the second straight week the three major States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland all swung to the ALP on a two-party preferred basis. The Albanese Government now leads clearly in NSW (56% cf. 44%) and Victoria (57.5% cf. 42.5%) and has narrowed the gap in Queensland (47% cf. 53%).
Primary support for both major parties dropped this week. Support for the ALP was down 0.5% to 30.5% while support for the Coalition was down 1% to 35%. Looking at support for the minor parties shows support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 15.5%, support for One Nation was up 1% to 5.5%, support for Other Parties was down 1.5% to 4% and support for Independents was up 0.5% at 9.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Albanese Government has increased its two-party preferred advantage with the ALP on 53.5% ahead of the Coalition on 46.5% – the largest lead for the Government since early March.
“Despite the good result for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis, the primary support for both major parties fell slightly this week. The main beneficiaries were the Greens (up 1.5% to 15.5%) and One Nation (up 1% to 5.5%).
“The strong protests by Greens supporters against Israel’s conduct in the war in Gaza over the last week, including with Greens Leader Adam Bandt addressing the crowd, have clearly been a factor behind the rising support for the Greens.
“This week’s results show over a third of Australian electors (34.5%) now supporting either a minor party or independent – up almost 3% points from the 2022 Federal Election (31.7%). The rising proportion of Australians supporting minor parties and independents increases the likelihood that we will end up with a hung Parliament after the next Federal Election.
“However, the clear lead for the ALP this week means that if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with an increased majority.
“The swing to the Albanese Government was strongest in Australia’s three largest States of NSW, Victoria and Queensland. The ALP now has a convincing two-party preferred lead in NSW (56% cf. 44%) and Victoria (57.5% cf. 42.5%) and is closing the gap in Queensland (47% cf. 53%).”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,687 Australian electors from June 3-9, 2024. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
