Coalition enjoys its largest two-party preferred lead since the last Federal Election: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%
The Coalition now has a clear lead on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the Federal Election more than two years ago: L-NP 51.5% (up 2%) ahead of the ALP 48.5% (down 2%) in the week student protests on University campuses in support of Palestine were broken up.
In addition, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese failed to come out in support of Israel after the International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan issued applications for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
This is all playing out against a backdrop of increased concern about crime and safety, and particularly the safety of women.
While support for the ALP dropped for a second straight week, and was down 2% to only 28.5% this week, the drop in ALP primary support drifted to minor parties and independents, not to the Coalition. Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged on 37% for a third straight week.
If a Federal Election were held now the Coalition would form a minority government, but with the support of minor parties and independents, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 15% and support for One Nation increased 0.5% to 6%. In addition, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4.5% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Primary support for the ALP has dropped 2% to 28.5% last week after student protests on University campuses in support of Palestine were broken up and Foreign Minister Penny Wong has consistently expressed support for a two-state solution to end the conflict in Gaza.
“ALP support was also undermined because Prime Minister Anthony Albanese failed to support Israel after International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan issued applications for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
“The concerns about the Albanese Government’s policies in relation to the situation in Israel & Gaza have all played out against a backdrop of increased concern about crime and safety, and particularly the safety of women all around Australia.
“However, the Coalition is not benefiting directly from this, its primary vote remained unchanged at 37%. Instead, support has increased for the Greens is up 0.5% to 15%, One Nation, is up 0.5% to 6%, Independents are up 0.5% to 9% and Other Parties are up 0.5% to 5%.
“More women than men swung against the Albanese Government and a look at the results in the different States shows the strongest swings against the ALP on a two-party preferred basis were in Queensland (-7.5%) and Victoria (-6.5%).
“In addition to the national issues, in Queensland the Steven Miles-led ALP Government is facing a State Election defeat this year while in Victoria the Jacinta Allan-led ALP Government has just handed down a State Budget with spending cuts and no sign of any cost-of-living relief for consumers.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,715 Australian electors from May 20-26, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
