No ‘Budget Boost’ for Government as ALP loses ground after Federal Budget is delivered: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%
The Albanese Labor Government has lost support and now only has a narrow lead after delivering the Federal Budget: ALP 50.5% (down 1.5%) compared to the Coalition on 49.5% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered the Federal Budget last week.
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The following are some reasons the ALP vote has declined:
“In a climate where Australians are concerned about cost of living, inflation, and the housing crisis, the Reserve Bank has drawn a causal link between the housing crisis and immigration levels.
“The Reserve Bank has stated high immigration is driving rental inflation and this creates a housing crisis for many Australians. The Government’s failure to tackle high immigration – Coalition Leader Peter Dutton has stated the Coalition will cut annual permanent migration to 140,000 – is hurting the Government.
“The Government’s commitment to hand billions of dollars as tax rebates to Australian billionaires to create ‘clean technology’ such as ‘Green Steel’ has not resonated with electors; and in addition the $300 per year household electricity rebate will be only a ‘drop in the bucket’ compared to increasing mortgages and rising food prices.”
Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged on 37% this week while support for the ALP dropped 1.5% to only 30.5%. Much of this support went to the Greens, up 1% to 14.5%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 5.5%, while support for Other Parties was down 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents increased by 1% to 8.5%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,674 Australian electors from May 13-19, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
