ALP Government regains the initiative after vowing to dump ‘Directive 99’ and the tragedy in Papua New Guinea grabbed the headlines: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%
The Albanese Government has regained the lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 52% (up 3.5%) ahead of the Coalition 48% (down 3.5%). If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
Support for the Albanese Government improved after last week dumping the controversial ‘Directive 99’ and issuing a new directive to ensure community safety outweighs any other consideration when assessing the visa conditions of convicted foreign-born criminals released from prison in Australia.
In addition, the devastating landslide in Papua New Guinea, which buried as many as 2,000 people last week, dominated the news headlines; while there finally appears to be progress towards peace in the Middle East with Israel and Hamas considering a three-phase peace deal to end the conflict.
Primary support for the ALP increased 2.5% to 31% this week while support for the Coalition was down 1% to 36%. This is the closest the two parties have been since before the Federal Budget in early May.
Support for the Greens was down 1% to 14%, support for One Nation decreased 1.5% to 4.5%, support for Other Parties was up 1% to 5.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Albanese Government has regained the advantage on a two-party preferred basis with the ALP on 52% ahead of the Coalition on 48% – a return to the Roy Morgan Poll results for the four week stretch from April 15 – May 12.
“Primary support for the ALP increased 2.5% to 31% this week and helped power the Government back into the two-party preferred lead. The rise in support came after the Government issued a new directive to prioritise community safety and dump the former policy known as ‘Directive 99’ when dealing with foreign born criminals released from prison in Australia.
“On a gender basis the two-party preferred swing was larger among men than women – with both genders now preferring the ALP over the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis.
“Analysis of results on a State-by-State basis shows the swing to the ALP was most significant in the three largest States of New South Wales (+7%), Victoria (+6%) and Queensland (+4.5%).
“In addition to the ‘national issues’, it’s worth noting the Miles ALP Government in Queensland reduced all public transport fares to 50 cent for the next six months – a significant saving amounting to thousands of dollars for many commuters in Brisbane.
“In New South Wales, the Minns ALP Government announced that Australia’s largest coal-fired power station, Eraring, would have its operating life extended for two years until 2027. This will secure lower energy prices over the next two years for residents of New South Wales.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,579 Australian electors from May 27 – June 2, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
