Peter Dutton puts nuclear power on the agenda as ALP edges ahead of Coalition on two-party preferred: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%
The Albanese Government has edged narrowly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on two-party preferred terms: ALP 51% (up 1%) cf. Coalition 49% (down 1%) after Opposition Leader Peter Dutton placed nuclear energy at the centre of the Coalition’s policy agenda for next year’s Federal election.
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the ALP likely to form a minority government with the support of minor parties and independents, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
On a State-by-State basis the national swing to the ALP was built on swings in New South Wales (ALP: +3.5%), Western Australia (ALP: +4.5%) and South Australia (ALP: +5%). There was no swing to either party in Victoria while in Queensland the LNP gained a swing of 3.5% against the national trend.
On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP leads in NSW, Victoria, WA and SA while the Coalition has a sizeable lead in Queensland. It is worth noting the LNP holds 21/30 (70%) of Federal seats in Queensland and both Coalition Leaders are from the State. Liberal Leader Peter Dutton and Nationals Leader David Littleproud.
Primary support for the Coalition was down 1% to 37% this week while the ALP closed the gap, up 2% to 31.5%. However, support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13%.
Support for One Nation increased 1% to 6%, support for Other Parties was down 1.5% to 4% and support for Independents was unchanged at 8.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Albanese Government has regained the lead on a two-party preferred basis in late June: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. The ALP increased their primary vote support, up 2% to 31.5%, while the Coalition lost ground this week, down 1% to 37%.
“The Coalition’s bold announcement that they would take a policy of building nuclear power stations to next year’s election has drawn a large contrast between the two major parties. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has outlined plans to build nuclear power stations in seven different electorates around Australia including two in Queensland and NSW and one each in Victoria, WA and SA.
“The State-by-State swings show the only positive reaction for the Coalition last week was in Queensland which was the only State to swing to the Opposition. Both Dutton and Nationals Leader David Littleproud are from Queensland and the party holds 70% of Federal seats in the State (21/30).
“Although the result this week narrowly favours the Albanese Government, a close margin of 51-49 repeated at the Federal Election is most likely to lead to a hung Parliament with the support of minor party and independents required to form government. Most cross-benchers in the House of Representatives, including Greens and the so-called ‘Teal Independents’ have already come out against Dutton’s plan to build nuclear power plants.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,696 Australian electors from June 17-23, 2024. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
