ALP & Coalition are now even on two-party preferred terms in mid-June: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%
The Albanese Government and the Liberal-National Coalition are now ‘dead even’ on two-party preferred terms: ALP 50% (down 3.5%) cf. Coalition 50% (up 3.5%).
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
The three major States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland drove the swing to the Coalition this week with each State swinging by at least 3% away from the Albanese Government. The Coalition now leads easily in Queensland (LNP: 59% cf. ALP: 41%), the two parties are even in New South Wales (ALP: 50% cf. L-NP: 50%) while the ALP leads in Victoria (ALP: 54.5% cf. L-NP: 45.5%).
Primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 38% this week. The increase for the Coalition came at the expense of the ALP, down 1% to 29.5%, and the Greens, down 2% to 13.5%.
Support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5%, support for Other Parties was up 1.5% to 5.5% and support for Independents was down 1% at 8.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The two major parties are now ‘dead-even’ on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50% after support for the Coalition surged last week. On a primary vote basis support for the Coalition increased 3% to 38% and is now clearly ahead of the ALP on 29.5%, down 1% – a gap of 8.5% points.
“In the last week Opposition Leader Peter Dutton advocated strongly for building nuclear power stations to utilise existing transmission infrastructure to lower Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions and also provide stable baseload power to lower electricity and energy costs long-term.
“Dutton also confirmed the Coalition would break the Albanese Government’s legislated commitment that Australia cut greenhouse emissions by 43 per cent by 2030. Dutton claimed that sticking to the 43% target meant hurting the Australian economy and industry and costing Australian jobs.
“Support for the minor parties plays a big role in the two-party preferred vote. When support for the Greens rises due to issues such as Palestine or ‘climate change’ being in the news, support for the ALP increases in two-party preferred terms. When support for the Greens falls as the focus turns to economic and cost of living issues, the support for the ALP in two-party preferred terms falls – as we saw this week.
“There is a similar impact with One Nation. When support for One Nation increases due to a focus on immigration, this helps drive up support for the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis. Importantly, nearly a third of Australians, 32.5%, now support a minor party or independent, up almost 1% point from the 2022 Federal Election (31.7%). The persistent high support for minor parties and independents increases the likelihood we will end up with a hung Parliament after the election.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,724 Australian electors from June 10-16, 2024. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
