L-NP (52%) takes the lead over ALP (48%) after ALP disunity on Palestine
A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with the two-party preferred vote: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The Coalition surged after ALP disunity on the conflict between Israel and Hamas led to Senator Fatima Payman to quit the Labor Party last week. Senator Payman crossed the floor a few days before quitting the party when the Greens brought a motion to the floor calling for recognition of Palestinian statehood.
Primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 39.5% this week while the ALP dropped 3% to 28.5%. Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13.5%.
Support for One Nation increased 0.5% to 5%, support for Other Parties dropped 1% to 4.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“In politics it is often said that ‘disunity is death’ – meaning that a political party that argues with itself will soon be disregarded by the public as a ‘safe pair of hands’ to be in government.
“Last week saw the Albanese Government riven by disunity as Senator Fatima Payman, elected in 2022 and the only Government Senator to wear a hijab, quit the Parliamentary Labor Party after crossing the floor.
“The defection has cost Labor a Senator but has also cost the party support in the community. Support for the ALP dropped 3% points to only 26.5% and now trails the Coalition by over 10% points on 39.5% (up 3% points). This is the largest gap between the two parties since the Albanese Government won the 2022 Federal Election.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,723 Australian electors from July 1-7, 2024. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is much closer. L-NP: 50.5% (up 3% points from a week ago) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 3% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
