Labor has slight edge in ‘too close to call’ election as both major parties lose primary support: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the Labor Party maintaining a small edge on 50.5% (up 1.5%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Both major parties lost support this week highlighting the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result with nearly a third of the electorate not voting for either of the major parties. Either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government based on these results.
The Coalition primary vote decreased by 2% to 37.5% while ALP primary support was down 1% to only 30.5%. In addition, support for the Greens was unchanged at 13%.
It was smaller parties and independents that gained support. Support for One Nation increased 1.5% to 6.5%, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents increased 1% to 8.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The latest Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention shows a tight race between the two major parties – which both lost primary vote support this week. The ALP is now marginally in front on a two-party preferred basis (ALP: 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%), but if this result were repeated at the Federal Election due early next year we would have a hung parliament.
“This week’s Roy Morgan survey shows nearly a third of the electorate, 32%, now supporting minor parties or independents – up by 0.3% points from the last Federal Election.
“The high support for parties like the Greens and One Nation, as well as the ‘Teal Independents’ is set to play a vital role in determining which major party takes power after next year’s election.
“On present trends we are set for a very close election early in 2025.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,652 Australian electors from July 22-28, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 8% (unchanged from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred slightly increases the margin for the Albanese Government: ALP: 51% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 49% (down 0.5% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
