Coalition gains slight edge over Labor after controversy about alleged union corruption: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%
If a Federal Election were held now the Coalition would be favoured to form a minority government with the support of minor parties and independents with the Coalition on 51% (up 0.5%) leading the ALP on 49% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The Coalition increased its primary vote lead over the ALP this week with the Coalition up 2% to 39.5% and well ahead of the ALP on 31.5% (up 0.5%). In addition, support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 13%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 5%, support for Other Parties dropped 1.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents dropped 1.5% to 7.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Coalition has edged further ahead of the ALP on a two-party preferred basis this week as the controversy engulfing the Construction, Forestry & Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) has hit support for Labor – especially in Victoria with widespread allegations of corruption and potential criminality.
“The high-profile head of the Victorian branch of the CFMEU, John Setka, was forced to resign his position last week after a scathing report was released by investigative journalists via The Age and the Nine Network’s current affairs show 60 Minutes.
“The swing to the Coalition was strongest in Victoria (+2% on a two-party preferred basis) and this drove the national swing to the Coalition of +0.5%. There were also two-party preferred swings to the Coalition in New South Wales and Western Australia.
“A look at the voting results by gender also shows women swinging towards the Coalition – on a two-party preferred basis support for the Coalition increased by +3% amongst women.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,752 Australian electors from July 15-21, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 8% (up 2.5% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred narrowly favours the Albanese Government: ALP: 50.5% (down 1% point from a week ago) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 1% point from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
