Federal voting intention: ALP and Coalition are tied on 50% each two-party preferred in mid-August
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 50% (down 1.5%) tied with the Coalition on 50% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. The result once again highlights the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
The Coalition primary vote increased by 1% to 38% while ALP primary support was down 1% to 29.5%. Support for the Greens increased 2% to 14% and support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5%.
Smaller parties and independents lost support this week. Support for Other Parties dropped 1% to 4% and support for Independents was down 0.5% to 9.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Although the international focus has been on the Olympic Games, the domestic issue in the news has been the handling of the Construction, Forestry & Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) administration – with the Coalition calling for a Royal Commission.
“The latest results show a swing of 1.5% to the Coalition this week and the two major parties can’t be split with the ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50% on a two-party preferred basis – and heading for a potential hung parliament after the next election.
“A look at the longer-term two-party preferred trends between the two major parties shows that neither party has had a decisive lead for over two months since early June.
“The two-party preferred results by gender are intriguing and a mirror image of each other. Women favour the ALP by a margin of 9% points: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% whereas men favour the Coalition by the same margin: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%.
“Analysing the two-party preferred results on a State-by-State basis shows the Albanese Government leads in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania, the Coalition leads in New South Wales and Queensland whereas in South Australia the two parties are tied 50:50.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,671 Australian electors from August 5-11, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 8% (unchanged from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is identical for the first time since June: ALP: 51% (down 0.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 49% (up 0.5% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
