Federal voting intention: Coalition (50.5%) marginally ahead of the ALP (49.5%), but ‘too close to call’
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the Coalition on 50.5% (up 1%) just ahead of the ALP on 49.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This a reverse of last week’s results but nevertheless the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government. The result once again highlights the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
The Coalition primary vote increased by 1% to 39.5% while ALP primary support was down 1% to 29.5%. Support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13% and support for One Nation was unchanged at 4%.
Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 5% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“People’s voting intention remains almost dead-locked this week. The main issues people are concerned about are close to home including high inflation, cost-of-living and interest rates. The latest ABS monthly inflation figures for July are out on Wednesday and will be keenly watched ahead of next month’s Reserve Bank meeting on interest rates.
“Although the two-party preferred result remains close, the Coalition on 39.5% (up 1%) have maintained a strong lead over the ALP on 29.5% (down 1%) – a gap of 10% points. The net result is a slight movement to the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis although the overall result is once again ‘too close to call’.
“The most likely election result based on this week’s voting patterns is for a hung Parliament after the election. Neither party has enjoyed a decisive two-party preferred lead for over two months since early June with the last 11 weeks throwing up a series of close results and highlighting the importance of preference flows to determining the final outcome of the election due next year.
“The two-party preferred results by gender continue to show a significant difference and the Coalition’s advantage amongst men hands the party a slight edge. Men favour the Coalition by 7% points: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5% whereas women favour the ALP by only 5% points: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,701 Australian electors from August 19-25, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (down 3% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the contest is all tied up with two-party preferred result dead-even: ALP: 50% (down 1% point from a week ago) cf. L-NP 50% (up 1% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
