Federal voting intention virtually unchanged this week with ALP (51%) marginally ahead of the Coalition (49%)
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 51% (up 0.5%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
There was a slight movement to the ALP on a two-party preferred result this week, however, the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government. The result again shows the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
The ALP primary vote decreased 0.5% to 30% while Coalition support increased 0.5% to 36.5%. Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 14.5% while One Nation was unchanged at 6%.
Support for Other Parties dropped 1.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Australian voting intentions are little changed with the ALP on 51% marginally ahead of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis. Although the ALP is ahead if this result were repeated at next year’s election we would end up with a hung parliament for the first time in over a decade.
“ALP support was virtually unchanged at 30% and Coalition support was virtually unchanged at 36.5%. The big movements this week were for the Greens, up 1.5% to 14.5%, and Other Parties which dropped 1.5% to 3.5% – resulting in a small move the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.
“The most important result this week is that over a third of the electorate (33.5%, unchanged from a week ago) plan to vote for a minor party or independent at the next election.
“This is up from the last Federal Election and shows that preference deals and negotiations will be a key factor in determining which major party forms Australia’s next government.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,703 Australian electors from September 2-8, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 7% (down 1% point from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the ALP is further ahead and almost dead-level with the result at the last Federal Election: ALP: 52% (unchanged from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48% (unchanged from a week ago).
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
