Federal voting intention tied in early October: Coalition 50% cf. ALP 50%
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP 50% (up 1% point from a week ago) tied with the Coalition 50% (down 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This week’s result continues a run of close results stretching back 17 weeks until mid-June – nearly four months ago. Neither major party has held a decisive election-winning lead above 52% two-party preferred since the first week of June.
This result shows how important preference flows will be in determining which major party is best placed to form government with the support of minor parties and independents after the next federal election.
ALP primary vote support increased 1.5% points to 31.5% while Coalition dropped 0.5% points to 37.5%. Support for the Greens was down 1% to 12.5% while One Nation increased 1% to 5.5%.
Support for Other Parties dropped 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents was down 0.5% to 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
”A slight swing to the ALP this week has drawn the two major parties level in early October – likely now around six months from the start of the official federal election campaign.
“In truth though, both major parties have been in hung parliament territory for around four months since early June. Since then neither major party has been able to gain a decisive lead of at least 5% points on the two-party preferred (52.5% cf. 47.5%).
“Any federal election result closer than that is likely to lead to the cross-bench being called upon to decide which major party will form Australia’s next government.
“As we have seen consistently, the gender divide between the two major parties continues to be a major factor in federal voting intentions. Women favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis (52.5% cf. 47.5%) while men favour the Coalition by a similar margin (52.5% cf. 47.5%).
“If the ALP can lift their support amongst men, or the Coalition can lift their support amongst women, whichever party manages to do this is likely to perform better at next year’s federal election.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,697 Australian electors from September 30 – October 6, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 7% (down 0.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is in favour of the ALP on 52% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP 48% (down 0.5% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
