Federal election ‘too close to call’ with Coalition (51%) now marginally ahead of the ALP (49%)
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the Coalition 51% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) just ahead of the ALP on 49% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This is the first time the Coalition has been in front for over a month – based on preferences being distributed by what electors tell us. However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the result is reversed with the ALP on 51.5% (down 0.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 48.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago).
This tight result emphasises again how important preference flows will be in determining which major party is best placed to form government with the support of minor parties and independents after the next federal election.
ALP primary vote support dropped 2% points to 30% while Coalition support was up 0.5% points at 38% - an 8% point gap between the two parties, the largest for a month. Support for the Greens was up 1% to 13.5% while One Nation was down 0.5% at 4.5%.
Support for Other Parties increased 1% to 4.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
”There was plenty of news last week including the RBA leaving interest rates unchanged for seventh straight meeting, and the very next day the ABS official inflation figures were released showing annual inflation at only 2.7% – the lowest for over three years – and well within the RBA’s preferred target range of 2-3%.
“There were also increased Israeli attacks on the Lebanese based militia Hezbollah throughout last week. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets into Israel in recent years, and especially since last year’s attack from the Gaza Strip by Hamas launched the current conflict.
“Although the Coalition has held a consistent lead on primary vote, the two-party preferred result is closer, and the result depends on how the preferences are distributed. If preferences are distributed by what voters tell us they prefer, the Coalition is marginally ahead, however, if preferences are distributed in the same way as the last Federal Election – the ALP is ahead.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,668 Australian electors from September 23-29, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 7.5% (unchanged from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is reversed with the ALP on 51.5% (down 0.5% points from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
