Coalition support increases nationally as the LNP wins the Queensland election
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the ALP 50.5% (down 1.5% points from a week ago) just ahead of the Coalition 49.5% (up 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows a movement to the Coalition, however, the overall result is ‘too close to call’ and either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government. The result again shows the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.
ALP primary vote support dropped 2% to 30% while Coalition support increased 1% to 37.5%, support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 14% and One Nation support was unchanged at 5.5%.
Support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
” The latest Federal voting intention shows Coalition support increasing nationally and the overall result ‘too close to call’: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.
“There was a significant swing to the Coalition in Queensland with State-based counterpart the LNP winning the State Election and David Crisafulli now sworn as Queensland’s 41st Premier. “Crisafulli leads the first Coalition Government on the Australian mainland since the Perrottet Government in NSW lost office over 18 months ago in March 2023.
“In addition, the Greens performed poorly and are struggling to retain the two seats they held prior to the election and may not repeat their excellent performance at the 2022 Federal Election.
“The major issues included ‘cost of living’ and concerns about ‘youth crime’. ‘Cost of living’ will have the largest impact at the Federal election and holds opportunities for both the Coalition and the Albanese Government to exploit.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,687 Australian electors from October 21-27, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 8% (up 0.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan Poll are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is even further in favour of the ALP on 51.5% (down 1.5% point from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (up 1.5% points from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
