Coalition maintains a narrow two-party preferred lead over Labor for the third straight week
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the Coalition 51% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) narrowly ahead of the ALP 49% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The close result this week, and the large size of the crossbench (currently 16 seats) means either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government.
The Coalition increased its primary vote to 39% (up 1.5%) and is now 10% in front of the ALP on 29% (down 1.5%) – the largest primary vote lead since July.
Support for the Greens rebounded 1% to 13.5%, One Nation was unchanged at 6.5%, support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4.5% and support for Independents dropped 1% to 7.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention shows the Coalition with a narrow two-party preferred lead nationally in mid-November: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. This is the first time the Coalition has led in two-party preferred terms for three consecutive weeks since late July.
“Coalition support increased 1.5% to 39% and is at its highest since August and 3.3% points higher than the 2022 Federal Election. In contrast, ALP support has dropped 1.5% to 29% and is 3.6% below their support at the election.
“The rise in support for the Coalition comes after Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential Election. This is the first Roy Morgan Poll conducted entirely (November 11-17) after Donald Trump was announced as President-elect on the evening of Wednesday November 7 (Australian time).”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,675 Australian electors from November 11-17, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 7.5% (down 2% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result can’t be split with the ALP on 50% (down 1% from a week ago) exactly level with the L-NP 50% (up 1% from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
