Coalition retains a narrow lead over Labor as Donald Trump wins US Presidential Election
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ with the Coalition 50.5% (down 0.5% points from a week ago) narrowly ahead of the ALP 49.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The close result this week, and the large size of the crossbench (currently 16 seats) means either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government.
Primary vote support was little changed for the major parties with Coalition support down 0.5% to 37.5% and ALP support unchanged at 30.5%, however, support for the Greens dipped 1.5% to 12.5%.
One Nation support increased 0.5% to 6.5%, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4.5% and support for Independents increased 1% to 8.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention shows the Coalition with a narrow two-party preferred lead nationally in early November: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%. This is the first time the Coalition has retained a lead for two consecutive weeks since late July.
“The Roy Morgan survey shows the big story of last week, the re-election of President Donald Trump to be President of the United States, has had little impact on the Australian political situation.
“Analysing by gender shows the Coalition has a significant lead among men: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5% while the ALP leads amongst women: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 47%.
“One should be careful of voter split by gender. Exit polls for the third US Presidential election in a row showed Donald Trump winning the votes of white women. However, most (if not all) pre-election polls showed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris had a significant lead over Donald Trump amongst women – clearly a reason why pre-election polls were wrong.
“On the economic front the Albanese Government will be disappointed the Reserve Bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at a 13-year high of 4.35% on Melbourne Cup Day. A week earlier the ABS announced inflation had dropped to 2.8% – within the RBA’s desired 2-3% target range.
“However, the RBA referred to core inflation, the ‘trimmed mean’, remaining above the target range to justify not reducing interest rates. The latest ABS core inflation figure is 3.4%.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,665 Australian electors from November 4-10, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 9.5% (up 3% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
The Roy Morgan survey allocates preferences based on how people say they will vote today as we believe it is important to measure the pulse of the nation at this point in time given the full candidate and party lists for the next election are not yet known.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is reversed in favour of the ALP on 51% (unchanged from a week ago) ahead of the L-NP 49% (unchanged from a week ago).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
