Coalition regains two-party preferred lead after Albanese Government does deals with the Greens to pass legislation
Coalition 51% (up 2% points from a week ago) are now narrowly ahead of the ALP 49% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
This week’s close result, and the large size of the crossbench (currently 16 seats), means either the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government.
Coalition primary support recovered this week, up 1.5% to 38.5% at the expense of the ALP, down 1.5% to 30%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 12.5%.
Support for other parties was also unchanged. One Nation support was unchanged at 6.5%, support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4% and support for Independents was unchanged at 8.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention shows the Coalition 51% cf. ALP 49% regaining a narrow two-party preferred lead. As we said a week ago, when leaders travel abroad and meet key world leaders there is often a short-term ‘boost’ to their popularity, but this usually proves short-lived as voters return to focusing on the ‘bread and butter’ issues at home – such as ‘cost of living’ and ‘inflation’.
“On the home front the Albanese Government did several deals in the last week of the Parliamentary year – including several deals with the Greens – to pass legislation. The deals with the Greens secured Reserve Bank governance reforms, a supermarket code of conduct, the Future Made in Australia scheme and housing reforms to boost rental supply – but likely cost the Government support.
“The Government also worked with the Coalition to pass a highly contentious social media ban for kids (due to start in a year’s time) and legislated new migrant deportation powers. All up the Albanese Government passed 31 bills on the final day of the parliamentary year.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,666 Australian electors from November 25 – December 1, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (down 1.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result shows a dead-heat with the ALP on 50% (down 1.5% from a week ago) level with the L-NP 50% (up 1.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
