Coalition increases lead: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48% – now largest for five months
A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with the two-party preferred vote: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
The increase in support for the Coalition came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticised the Albanese Government’s approach to Israel and a major strike by Woolworths workers led to shortages of key goods at many stores of Australia’s largest supermarket.
Primary support for both major parties was down: ALP support dropped 2% to 28% (the ALP’s lowest level of support since the last Federal Election) while Coalition support was down 0.5% to 38%.
Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 13% and One Nation support was unchanged at 6.5%. Support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4% and support for Independents increased 2% to 10.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“Roy Morgan’s latest Federal voting intention shows the Coalition increasing its two-party preferred lead over the ALP: Coalition 52% (up 1%) cf. ALP 48% (down 1%) as tensions increased between the Albanese Government and the Israeli Government led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
“Support for the government fell after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu accused the Albanese Government of taking an ‘extreme anti-Israeli position’. Netanyahu blamed the arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue last week – now classified as a terrorist act – on the Government’s failure to call out antisemitism more consistently and firmly.
“Netanyahu also attacked Australia’s decision to vote in favour of a United Nations motion calling on Israel to end its occupation of the West Bank and Gaza as soon as possible. The vote marked a shift in Australia’s previous position of abstaining or voting against similar resolutions since 2001.
“In addition, a major strike at Australia’s largest supermarket chain Woolworths led to shortages in key goods nation-wide and frustration for consumers battling a cost of living crisis.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,653 Australian electors from December 2-8, 2024. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 0.5% from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result shows a dead-heat with the ALP on 50% (unchanged) level with the L-NP 50% (unchanged).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
