Coalition lead over ALP strengthens in mid-January: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%
A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with a marginally improved two-party preferred vote from last week: L-NP 52% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 48% (down 0.5%), the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Primary support for the Coalition increased 1.5% to 42% and came at the expense of the ALP, down 1.5% to 28.5%. Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13%.
Support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 4%, Other Parties were up 0.5% to 4% while support for Independents dropped 0.5% to 8.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Coalition has now maintained a consistent two-party preferred lead over the ALP since the beginning of Summer: In mid-January the L -NP (52%) is clearly ahead of the ALP (48%).
“Importantly, the Coalition has also increased its primary vote lead to a significant 13.5% points ahead of Labor. The Coalition is now on 42% compared to the ALP on only 28.5%. This is a higher primary vote for the Coalition than it received when it won the 2016 and 2019 Federal Elections.
“The rising level of anti-Semitic attacks – especially in Sydney and Melbourne – has raised questions for Australians about how seriously the Albanese Government is taking the issue. The Coalition is clearly benefiting from the strong stance it has taken in condemning these actions forthrightly and consistently under Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,564 Australian electors from January 13-19, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 8.5% (up 2% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result also shows a narrow lead for the Coalition on 52% (up 1.5%) ahead of the ALP on 48% (down 1.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
