Coalition lead over ALP tightens in mid-January: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%
A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with two-party preferred vote narrowing from last week: L-NP 51.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1.5%), the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged at 40.5% and remains well ahead of the ALP on 30% (down 1%). Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 12.5% - and their preferences shifted decisively in favour of the ALP this week after a closer than usual Greens preference split a week ago favoured the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote.
Support for One Nation rebounded 1% to 4.5%, Other Parties were unchanged at 3.5% while support for Independents dropped 0.5% to 9%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
u003cemu003e“The Coalition has retained a narrow two-party preferred lead over the ALP in mid-January as Greens preferences – which usually favour the ALP strongly – returned to a more expected split between the two major parties.
“The Coalition has now retained a two-party preferred lead over the ALP for seven straight weeks since the beginning of Summer – the longest stretch of weeks showing the party in front during this term of Parliament.
“On a State-based level the Coalition has retained its lead in Victoria, after the Coalition leadership change in that State, and also leads in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.” u003c/emu003e
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,721 Australian electors from January 6-12, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6.5% (unchanged from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result shows a narrow lead for the Coalition on 50.5% (up 0.5%) ahead of the ALP on 49.5% (down 0.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
