ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up marginally by 0.6pts to 96.6 in February – before RBNZ cuts interest rates in late February
Wait-and-see mode for ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence.
- ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose marginally to 96.6 in February.
- The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item, the best retail indicator, lifted 1 point to -15.
- Inflation expectations were little changed at 4.0%, continuing their stable run.
Turning to the detail (for charts see page 4 of the linked PDF):
• The future conditions index, made up of forward-looking questions, eased 1 point to 103.2. The current conditions index rose 3 points to 86.7.
• The net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 5 points in February to a net rating of -12% with 26% of New Zealanders (up 3% points) saying they are 'better off' financially than this time last year compared to 38% (down 1% point) who say they are 'worse off' financially.
• A net 21% of New Zealanders now expect to be better off this time next year, down 2 points from a month ago with 44% of New Zealanders (unchanged) saying they expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year compared to 24% (up 2% points) saying they expect to be 'worse off'.
• A net 15% of New Zealanders now think it’s a 'bad time to buy' a major household item, still very subdued, with only 28% (down 2% points) of New Zealanders saying it's a 'good time to buy' a major household item compared to 42% (down 3% points) who say it's a 'bad time to buy'.
• The net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 1 point to -16% and the 5-year-ahead measure was steady at a net positive rating of +5%.
• House price inflation expectations lifted slightly from 3.1% to 3.2% year-on-year.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose 0.1% pts to 4.0%.
For up-to-date charts of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence please see page 4 of the linked PDF.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was steady in February, with only small moves across most components. The most relevant question for retailers is whether people think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. This was mixed in February amongst people with mortgages, and those without, and remains relatively subdued (see figure 2 in the linked PDF). Figure 3 (see linked PDF) shows that a further improvement is needed before this indicator will be pointing to positive real retail spending year-on-year.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
