ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 3.9pts to 91.2 in October
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 3.9pts in October to 91.2, following three months of improvement. Both the current and future conditions indices declined.
- Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8% in October and expected house price inflation lifted from 3.2% to 3.4%.
Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the linked PDF):
• The future conditions index, made up of forward-looking questions, fell from 105.6 to 100.3. The current conditions index also fell, down 2 points to 77.6.
• Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 6 points to a net rating of -22% with only 21% of respondents (down 5% points on a month ago) saying they are 'better off' financially than a year ago compared to 43% of respondents (up 2% points) saying they are 'worse off' financially.
• A net 14% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, down 11 points from a month ago with 41% of respondents (down 5% points on a month ago) saying they expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year compared to 27% (up 6% points) that say they expect to be 'worse off' financially.
• A net 23% of respondents think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, up 2 points from a month ago but still sending soft signals about retail demand with only 26% of respondents (up 1% point from a month ago) saying now is a 'good time to buy' major household items compared to a clear plurality, 49% of respondents (down 2% points) who say it is a 'bad time to buy' major household items.
• Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 2 points to -19%. The 5-year-ahead measure fell 3 points to a net rating of +6%.
• House price inflation expectations rose from 3.2% to 3.4% year-over-year in October, with the areas outside the main centres leading the charge.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Households typically overestimate the rate of inflation, but expectations are broadly consistent with their long-run average of 3.7%.
After three months of improvement, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence slipped in October. While interest rate relief is on the horizon–and indeed the month of October saw the RBNZ up the ante and deliver an outsized 50bp OCR cut, with another 50bp cut looking likely in November – that will take time to flow through. Around 65% of mortgage holders will refix in the next 12 months, but the wait certainly isn’t without its challenges as labour market conditions continue to deteriorate.
The impacts of deteriorating job security are particularly evident in the regional cut of the data. Wellingtonians remain the most pessimistic across the country, with ongoing public sector job losses and the wider fallout from that likely weighing on sentiment.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
