ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 4.7 pts to 87.9 in July
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 4.7 points in July to 87.9. It’s still very low, but has clawed back about half the March-April fall that coincided with ‘recession’ headlines. The lift was driven by improving expectations rather than the here and now.
- Inflation Expectations fell half a percent to 3.7%, the lowest they have been for nearly four years since September 2020. Expected house price inflation dropped a full percent to 2.4%, back around levels prevailing a year ago.
Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the linked PDF):
• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions rose 9 points from 87.0 to 95.7, in contrast to the current conditions index, which fell a point to 76.2.
• The net perceptions of current personal financial situations rebounded 4 points to -18% in July with nearly a quarter of respondents, 23% (up 3% points from a month ago), saying they are 'better off financially' than this time last year, while 41% (down 1% point) now say they are 'worse off'.
• A net 20% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, up 12 points from June - the highest rating for this question so far this year. Now 43% of respondents (up 6% points from a month ago) say they expect to be 'better off financially' this time next year compared to just 23% (down 6% points) who expect to be 'worse off'.
• In contrast, the buying index remains at low levels with a net 30% who think it’s a 'bad time to buy a major household item', with this retail spending indicator giving up last month’s gains. This includes a majority of 52% of respondents (up 3% points on a month ago) who say it is a 'bad time to buy major household items' compared to just over a fifth of respondents, 22% (down 4% points), who say it is a 'good time to buy'. This is the lowest level of buying sentiment so far this year.
• The net perceptions of respondents regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time lifted 7 points to -32%. The 5-year-ahead measure rose 7 points to a net result of -1%.
• House price inflation expectations fell from 3.4% to 2.4% year-on-year. Expectations fell in every region. Auckland is highest, at 2.9%.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations eased from 4.2% to 3.7% and continue to trend lower in a zig-zag fashion, consistent with annual inflation continuing to fall over the next six months.
High inflation caused a level shift in consumer confidence, perhaps reflecting that high inflation affects everyone, whereas rising unemployment leaves most people untouched. Consumer confidence plummeted when inflation took off, then was recovering as inflation fell until recent months. The rolling over of this indicator is consistent with our card spending data that indicates a very tough autumn and winter for retailers (figure 2 in linked PDF).
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
