ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 1.7 pts to 83.2 in June
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 1.7 points in June to 83.2, confidence is miles below the 20-year average of 114.
- Inflation expectations bounced from 3.8% back up to 4.2%. It’s volatile, but gradually trending lower. Expected house price inflation ticked up from 3.2% to 3.4%.
Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the PDF):
• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell from 89.5 to 87 in June, while the current conditions index fell just half a point to 77.4.
• Net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 7 points to -22% with 20% (down 5% points) of New Zealanders saying they are now 'better off' financially than this time last year compared to 42% (up 2% points) saying they are now 'worse off'. Responses to this question have been particularly volatile lately.
• A net 8% of New Zealanders expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year, up 2 points. This includes over a third of New Zealanders, 37% (up 1% point), saying they expect to be 'better off' financially compared to 29% (down 1% point) who expect to be 'worse off'.
• However, a net 23% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, an improvement of 6 points but still extremely cautious. This includes 26% (up 4% points) of New Zealanders who say now is a 'good time to buy' a major household item compared to a plurality of New Zealanders, 49% (down 3% points), who say it is a 'bad time to buy'.
• Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 3 points to -39%. The 5-year-ahead measure fell 6 points to -8%.
• House price inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% to 3.4% year-on-year. Auckland expectations rose from 2.5% to 4.2%, in a turnaround from the downward trend in the preceding three months. But we’d caution that they can be volatile.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations bounced from 3.8% to 4.2%, but in the bigger picture they continue to trend lower.
High inflation caused a level shift in Consumer Confidence, perhaps reflecting that high inflation affects everyone, whereas rising unemployment leaves the vast majority of people untouched. Consumer Confidence plummeted when inflation took off, then was recovering as inflation fell until recession headlines came along and caused another drop. The rise in the question of whether it’s a good time to purchase a major household item this month suggests that “sticker shock” could be fading, but the level of the indicator still suggests ongoing tough times for retailers (see figure 2 in PDF).
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
