ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence hits highest points since January 2022 at 95.1
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 2.9 points in September to 95.1, its third straight month of improvement. At 95.1 it is still well below par, but it’s at its highest level since January 2022. The lift was driven by expectations about the future, rather than views of the here and now.
- Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 2.8% to 3.2%, led by the North Island.
Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the linked PDF):
• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions rose another 5 points from 100.5 to 105.6. The current conditions index was flat and is much more subdued at 79.6. See chart on page 5 of the linked PDF. This strong contrast between the here and now and expectations of the future mirrors the themes evident in last month’s Business Outlook survey (note: this month’s edition will be released on Monday), and is typical at the start of economic recoveries.
• The net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 2 points to -16% with 26% (up 3% points) saying they are 'better off financially' than this time a year ago compared to 41% (unchanged) who say they are 'worse off financially'. That’s indeed still very weak, but well off its recent low (-30% in February 2023).
• In contrast, a net 25% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year with 46% (up 5% points) saying the expect to be 'better off financially' this time next year compared to only 21% (down 3% points) they expect to be 'worse off financially', up 8 points.
• A net 25% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item with 51% (up 1% point) who say now is a 'bad time to buy major household items' compared to only 25% (down 2% points) who say it is a 'good time to buy major household item's, down a net 2 points and still sending soft signals about retail demand.
• Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time lifted 1 point to -17% - which is still well into negative territory while the 5-year-ahead measure rose 6 points, and further into positive territory, at +9%.
• House price inflation expectations rose from 2.8% to 3.2% y/y; they appear to have troughed in late 2022. Expectations are strongest in the North Island excluding Wellington.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Households typically overestimate the rate of inflation.
Despite the lift in recent months, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence remains subdued, as any retailer could tell you (see figure 2 of the linked PDF). While interest rates are coming down, most mortgage debt is on fixed rates, which means most indebted households will not yet have experienced any meaningful relief. Like businesses, households are willing to believe that better times lie ahead, but they remain understandably cautious in the here and now.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
