ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 100.2 in December
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 100.2 in December.
- In a welcome sign for retailers, there was another sharp lift in the proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item.
- Inflation expectations eased back 0.2% pts to 3.8%, where they’ve spent four of the past five months.
Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the linked PDF):
• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions eased from 107.9 to 105.4 in December. The current conditions index lifted 5 points to 92.5.
• The net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 2 points to -14% in December with 26% (up 1% point) saying they are 'better off financially' than this time last year compared to 40% (up 3% points) who say they are 'worse off financially'. Although there was a fall it was off the back of a sharp rise the previous month.
• A net 21% of New Zealanders now expect to be better off this time next year including 44% (up 1% point) who expect to be 'better off financially' this time next year compared to 23% (up 2% points) who expect to be 'worse off financially' a net move overall down 1 point.
• A net 1% of New Zealanders now think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item with 40% (down 4% points) saying it's a 'bad time to buy a major household item' compared to 38% (up 7% points) who say it's a 'good time to buy a major household item', a net positive movement of 12 points for this indicator and on the verge of cracking net positivity.
• The net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 4 points to -12% in December and the 5-year-ahead measure eased 2 points to +7%.
• House price inflation expectations rose from 3.7% to 3.9% year-on-year.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations dipped from 4.0% to 3.8%, reversing last month’s lift. Household inflation expectations typically bounced around in a 3-4% range in the years before COVID.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was steady overall in December, though with some interesting movements in the components. Households on net still feel negative about their current financial situations, but there’s been a sharp improvement in the net proportion who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. Figure 2 in the linked PDF shows that the improvement in this indicator over the past year has been driven most strongly by those respondents who have mortgages, as interest rates have fallen.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
