ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 8.6pts to 99.8 in November
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 8.6pts in November to 99.8. Both the current and future conditions indexes lifted markedly.
- Inflation Expectations rose 0.2% pts to 4.0%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 3.4% to 3.7% and is trending higher.
Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the linked PDF):
• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions rose from 100.3 to 107.9. The current conditions index also jumped, up 10 points to 87.7, but still well below the neutral level of 100.
• Net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 10 points to-12%, despite rising unemployment, with 25% (up 4% points) of New Zealanders saying they are 'better off' financially than this time a year ago compared to a plurality of 37% (down 6% points) that say they are 'worse off'.
• A net 22% of New Zealanders expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year, up 8 points on a month ago including 43% (up 2%) points who say they expect to be 'better off' compared to only 21% (down 6% points) who say they expect to be 'worse off'. This is easily the most positive of the five indices measured.
• Concerningly as we head into the Christmas retailing season a net 13% of New Zealanders think it’s a 'bad time to buy' a major household item, still negative but up 10 points to its highest level since January 2022, and this includes 44% (down 5% points) who say it is a 'bad time to buy' major household items compared to only 31% (up 5% points) who say it is a 'good time to buy'.
• Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time rose 11 points, but are still in negative territory at -8%. The 5-year-ahead measure lifted 3 points to be well into the positive at +9%.
• House price inflation expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.7% year-on-year, continuing its sharp turnaround.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations rose from 3.8% to 4.0%. Households typically overestimate the rate of inflation; expectations are not much higher than their long-run average of 3.9%.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence resumed its recovery in November. Potential drivers include interest rate relief, a turn higher in the housing market, and easing inflation – though households are going to take some convincing on that front, with inflation expectations at 4%. These factors appear to be outweighing rising unemployment. Despite a lift this month, Wellingtonians remain the most pessimistic across the country by quite some margin, with ongoing public sector job losses weighing.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
