ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 4.2pts to 96.0 in January
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 4.2pts to 96.0 in January.
- The net proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item, the best retail indicator, dropped a sharp 15 points to -16.
- Inflation expectations were little changed at 3.9%. They have been very stable in recent months.
Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the linked PDF):
• The future conditions index, made up of forward-looking questions, eased 1 point to 104.2. The current conditions index fell a much sharper 9 points to 83.8.
• Net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 3 points to -17% with only 23% of respondents saying they are 'better off financially' compared to a year ago, down 3% points from a month ago, compared to a plurality of 39%, down 1% point, who say they are 'worse off financially'.
• A net 23% of respondents expect to be 'better off' this time next year, up 2% points with a plurality of 44% (unchanged) saying they expect to be 'better off financially' this time next year and only 22% (down 1% point) who expect to be 'worse off financially'.
• A net 16% of respondents think it’s a 'bad time' to buy a major household item, down a large 15% points from a month ago, giving up a decent chunk of the strong gains seen in the past two months of the Christmas and New Year retailing season.
• Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time fell 3% points to -15% while the 5-year-ahead measure eased 2% points to +5%.
• House price inflation expectations eased from 3.9% to 3.1% year-on-year, the lowest read in five months.
• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations were steady at 3.9%.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell in January, with falls across most questions. The most relevant question for retailers is whether people think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. Figure 2 in the linked PDF shows that this dipped in January both amongst people with mortgages, and those without.
The indicator is well off its lows and likely still trending higher, but this month’s fall is a reminder that the environment for retailers is likely to remain patchy and challenging for some time yet.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
