Coalition takes the lead over the ALP nationally as Victorian Liberals gain big swings in Prahran and Werribee by-elections
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the Coalition on 51.5% (up 1.5%) now just ahead of the ALP on 48.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The Coalition or ALP would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Primary support for the Coalition increased 2% to 40.5% this week while the ALP dropped 1% to 29%. Support for the Greens dropped 0.5% to 11% - their lowest level since November 2022.
Support for One Nation dropped 1.5% to 4%, support for Other Parties was up 2% to 6% and support for Independents down 1% to 9.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The Coalition had a strong week by winning the Prahran State by-election in Victoria against the Greens and the result is still ‘too close to call’ in Werribee in Melbourne’s western suburbs. Werribee is a traditional stronghold for the governing Labor Party which has held the seat since the 1970s.
“The Liberal Party achieved a massive two-party preferred swing of almost 14% against the Greens in Prahan to win the seat, and a swing of over 10% against the ALP in Werribee to cut the margin to under 1% between the two major parties.
“At a national level the Coalition leads 51.5% cf. 48.5% this week and by over 10% points on primary voting intention. Support for the Greens continues to crash, down 0.5% to 11% nationally – its lowest for well over two years since November 2022.
“The biggest swing to the Coalition nationally this week was in Queensland where newly elected LNP Premier David Crisafulli is providing impressive leadership amidst the extensive flooding crisis in North Queensland.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,688 Australian electors from February 3-9, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 9.5% (up 2% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result shows an almost identical result in favour of the Coalition on 51.5% (up 2%) just ahead of the ALP on 48.5% (down 2%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
