ALP and Coalition level on two-party preferred after latest ABS Inflation estimates increase the chances of a rate cut
If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament and ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 50% (up 2.0%) and Coalition on 50% (down 2.0%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
Primary support for the Coalition dropped 2% to 38.5% this week while the ALP increased 0.5% to 30%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at a 12-month low of 11.5%.
Support for One Nation dropped 0.5% to 5.5%, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents increased 1.5% to 10.5%.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“This week’s boost in support for the ALP came after last week’s lower-than-expected quarterly inflation estimate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.4% in the 12 months to December 2024, down 0.4% points from the previous quarter.
“The closely watched ‘trimmed mean’ measure – which strips out volatile items such as food, energy, and petrol – dropped 0.4% points to 3.2% – its lowest since December 2021.
“The falling inflation has raised hopes among many that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in mid-February. A cut to interest rates will provide relief to millions of mortgage holders around Australia that have endured 13 interest rate increases since early 2022.
“The Albanese Government’s chances of re-election this year would be greatly enhanced if the Reserve Bank cut interest rates for the first time since November 2020 during the pandemic.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,694 Australian electors from January 27 – February 2, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 7% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result shows a narrow margin in favour of the ALP on 50.5% (up 1.5%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (down 1.5%).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
