National support down significantly in October after the sinking of HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for October 2024 shows a significant swing in support with the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition up 7% points to 48% now with a narrow lead over the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 47% (down 8% points).
This is the first time since last year’s New Zealand Election that the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition has been in front of the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) and follows the sinking in early October of the HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa.
Support for all three parties in the National-led Government dropped in October. Support for National dropped 6.5% points to 31% - their lowest level of support since being elected last year, support for ACT was down 1% point to 9% and support for NZ First was down 0.5% points at 7%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 6% points to 29%, support for the Greens was unchanged at 14% and support for the Maori Party was up 1% point to 5%.
A further 5% (up 1% point) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2% (down 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 3% (up 1.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Labour/ Greens/ Maori would win 61 seats compared to 59 seats for National/ ACT/ NZ First
The survey results for October would lead to 61 seats (up six seats from the election) being won by the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition compared to 59 seats (down nine seats) for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 39 seats (down 10 seats), support for ACT would equal 11 seats (unchanged) and NZ First would win nine seats (up one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 37 seats (up three seats), Greens support would mean 18 seats (up three seats) and the Maori Party would win six seats (unchanged).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 883 electors from September 23 – October 20, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 6.5pts to 86 in October
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 6.5pts to 86 in October. Now 50.5% (up 4% point) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only, 36.5% (down 2.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 3.9pts to 91.2 and is still above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 86.5 on October 28 – November 3, 2024.
Women clearly favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori while men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First
On an overall basis women are heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 55% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 40.5% - a gap of 14.5% points.
In contrast, on an overall basis men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 54% with a significant lead over the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 41% - a gap of 13% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 61.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First, almost double the 31.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (40%) and NZ First (13%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
However, for younger men aged 18-49, the results are in line with the overall national figures with the 48% supporting the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party compared to 47% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a big change from a month ago. Interestingly, the Greens on 25% have their highest level of support withing this gender and age group.
In contrast to men, Women of all ages support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party, although by significantly different margins. Younger women aged 18-49 heavily favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 61% almost double the 32% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition. Support for Labour, at 36%, and the Maori Party, at 13.5%, are higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are more evenly split with exactly half, 50%, supporting the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party compared to 47.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First – a gap of only 2.5% points. Interestingly, support for the governing coalition partner NZ First, at 13%, is higher among this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Oct. 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31 | 26.5 | 25.5 | 27 | 36 | 32 | 40 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 13 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 7 | 7.5 | 1 | 13 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 8.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 47 | 40.5 | 32 | 47.5 | 54 | 47 | 61.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 29 | 33.5 | 36 | 31.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 25.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 14 | 12 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 16.5 | 25 | 6 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 5 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 48 | 55 | 61 | 50 | 41 | 48 | 32.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 5 | 4.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 36.5 | 31.5 | 29.5 | 33.5 | 42 | 41 | 44 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 50.5 | 57.5 | 58.5 | 57 | 42.5 | 47 | 37 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 86 | 74 | 71 | 76.5 | 99.5 | 94 | 107 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 9.5 | 15.5 | 12 | 19 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for older men, but below 100 for everyone else
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 6.5pts to 86 in October 2024.
A slim plurality of men, 42.5% (up 7.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 42% (down 6.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 99.5 (down 14pts).
The drop in Government Confidence for men in October was driven by younger men aged 18-49 plunged a massive 29.5pts to only 94. In contrast, the Government Confidence Rating for older men aged 50+ increased in October, up 5.5pts to 107 – and is now clearly the highest Government Confidence Rating of any gender and age group analysed.
Among women overall now a clear majority of 57.5% (down 0.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while under a third, 31.5% (up 1.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 74 (up 2pts) and dragging the overall index well below the neutral level of 100. The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 9pts to 71 – still the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while for women aged 50+ the Government Confidence Rating dropped 5pts to 76.5.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led governing coalition plunged in October after the sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui and contentious cuts to the planned Dunedin hospital redevelopment:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition plunged 8% points to 47% in October and is now behind the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 48% (up 7% points) for the first time since last year’s New Zealand election.
“The National-led Government has faced several challenges in recent months including the embarrassing sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa. The specialist dive and hydrographic vessel struck a reef in Samoa while on its third deployment to the southwest Pacific this year and while the 75 passengers and crew were safely evacuated the incident is a huge black mark for New Zealand’s navy.
“In addition to the sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui there were contentious cuts announced for the planned Dunedin hospital redevelopment in late September with costs escalating and accusations the National-led Government has broken a core election promise.
“The decision to scale-back on the Dunedin hospital redevelopment has drawn widespread criticism and sparked a widespread backlash across the country.
“There was also bad news on the economy released in late September which showed GDP contracting in the June quarter by 0.2%, the first quarterly decline since the September quarter 2023. Annual growth in GDP was also negative for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, shrinking by 0.2% compared to a year ago.
“Over the last three years since the New Zealand economy has grown in only five out of the last 12 quarters measured since July 2021.
“However, there was good news for the National-led Government in October with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting interest rates by 0.5% to 4.75%, the lowest level of official interest rates for 18 months since April 2023.
“The cuts to interest rates should help spur growth in the economy going forward and this is certainly what the National-led government will be hoping for given the latest quarterly GDP figures show the economy is now smaller than it was when Christopher Luxon became Prime Minister in late November 2023.
“The gap between the two major parties closed significantly in October. Support for Labour surged in October, up 6% points to 29%, its highest level of support for five months since May 2024. In contrast, support for the governing National plunged, down 6.5% points to 31%, its lowest level of support since being elected at last year’s election.
“If these results were repeated at an election the situation in Parliament would be on a knife-edge with the Opposition Labour (37 seats)/ Greens (18 seats)/Maori Party (6 seats) winning 61 seats compared to 59 seats for National (39 seats)/ ACT (11 seats)/ NZ First (9 seats).”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
