National support up in August as National-led Government increases lead to 10% points and RBNZ cut interest rates
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for August 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has increased in August, up 3% points to 53%, increasing its lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 43% (down 1% points).
For the National-led Government support for National increased 3.5% points to 36% - their highest level of support for four months since February 2024, but support for ACT dropped 1.5% points to 9.5% and support for NZ First increased 1% point to 7.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 2.5% points to 26.5%, support for the Greens was down 1% point to 13% and support for the Maori Party dropped 2.5% points to 3.5%.
A further 4% (down 2% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (down 2% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1.5% (unchanged) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win 66 seats compared to 54 seats for Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The survey results for August would lead to 66 seats (down two seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 54 seats (down one seat) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 45 seats (down four seats), support for ACT would equal 12 seats (up one seat) and NZ First would win nine seats (up one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 33 seats (down one seat), Greens support would mean 16 seats (up one seat) and the Maori Party would win five seats (down one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 898 electors from July 29 – August 25, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 7.5pts to 97.5 in August
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 7.5pts to 97.5 in August. Now 45.5% (down 2.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to almost as many, 43% (up 5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 4.3pts to 92.2 and is still above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 83.1 on August 25 – September 1, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 63.5% more than twice as popular as the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 31% - a gap of 32.5% points.
In contrast, a high plurality of women are behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 53.5% - clearly ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 43.5% - a gap of 10% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 66% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First, more than double the 32.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (44.5%) and NZ First (9.5%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is a similar edge for the governing coalition with 61% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 30% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori – a gap of 31% points. Support for the governing coalition partner ACT (18%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Women of all ages favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party with support strongest amongst younger women aged 18-49 on 57.5% well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 39.5% - a gap of 18% points. Support for the Greens is clearly strongest amongst this age group with almost one-in-four younger women (24%) supporting the Greens compared to 13.5% of men aged 18-49.
Older women aged 50+ are the most evenly split between the two sides of politics with a gap of only 2% points between support for Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 49.5% just ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 47.5%. Support for Labour is clearly strongest amongst this age group with the support of 37%.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | August 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 36 | 31.5 | 29 | 34.5 | 41 | 37.5 | 44.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 12 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 9.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 53 | 43.5 | 39.5 | 47.5 | 63.5 | 61 | 66 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 26.5 | 34 | 30.5 | 37 | 17.5 | 12 | 23 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13 | 17 | 24 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 13.5 | 4 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 43 | 53.5 | 57.5 | 49.5 | 31 | 30 | 32.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5.5 | 9 | 1.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 43 | 35.5 | 37.5 | 33 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 50.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 45.5 | 56.5 | 57.5 | 55 | 34.5 | 35 | 34 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 97.5 | 79 | 80 | 78 | 116 | 115.5 | 116.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 11.5 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 14.5 | 15.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is well above 100 for men, but even further below 100 for women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 7.5pts to 97.5 in August 2024 – and the highest for six months since February 2024.
A majority of men, 50.5% (up 6% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 34.5% (down 6% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 116 (up 12pts). The improvement in Government Confidence for men in August was driven by younger men aged 18-49 with a Government Confidence Rating of 115.5 (a large increase of 18.5pts on a month ago) while Government Confidence Rating for older men aged 50+ increased 4pts to 116.5 – the highest Government Confidence Rating of any gender and age group.
Among women overall now a majority of 56.5% (up 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just over a third, 35.5% (up 3.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 79 (up 2pts) and dragging the overall index clearly below the neutral level of 100. The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 10.5pts to 80 while for women aged 50+ the Government Confidence Rating was down 7pts to 78 – the lowest of any gender and age group analysed.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led governing coalition has increased to its highest for four months and news on the economic front is improving with inflation down and the RBNZ cutting interest rates:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition increased 3% points to 53% in August and is now 10% points ahead of the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 43% (down 1% point) – the largest lead for the government for four months.
“The driver of this increase in support was National which increased 3.5% points to 36% in July while there was also a solid increase for New Zealand First, up 1% points to 7.5%. However, support for ACT dropped by 1.5% points to 9.5%.
“If these results were repeated at an election the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition would win 66 seats to retain Government by a comfortable margin over the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 54 seats – a majority of 12 seats.
“The good news for National is that on the economic front there are signs that that the future is beginning to look more positive than it had been. Both Government Confidence, up 7.5pts to 97.5 (and the highest since February 2024) and the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating, up 4.3pts to 92.2, improved markedly in August.
“This increase in confidence across the board was helped by the decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 5.25% in mid-August. This was the RBNZ’s first cut to interest rates for over four years since March 2020 – at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic – and global panic.
“The decision of the RBNZ to commence cutting interest rates augurs well for both Consumer Confidence and the National-led Government in terms of gaining and increasing support in the months ahead.
“However, the voting intentions of New Zealanders continue to be defined by a massive gender split with nearly two-thirds of men (63.5%) supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to less than a third, only 31%, supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a large difference of 32.5% points.
“In contrast, a majority of 53.5% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 43.5% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a gap of only 10% points. This represents a massive 42.5% points difference between men and women.
“As well as the long-running gender gap, there are also significant age gaps emerging in the data. The biggest supporters of the governing National-led coalition are older men aged 50+, 66% of whom support the government compared to only 32.5% that support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition.
“In contrast, the biggest supporters of the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition are younger women aged 18-49 with support of 57.5% compared to only 39.5% that support the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition. Younger women are the only gender and age group for which a majority of voters support the Parliamentary Opposition.
“These differences are highlighted when looking at individual parties. Men aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of National (44.5%) and New Zealand First (9.5%). In contrast, Women aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of Labour (37%) while the Greens strongest support is from women aged 18-49 (24%) over 10% points higher than for men of the same age (13.5%).”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
