Prime Minister Luxon’s honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for May 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has crashed in May, down 4.5% points to 48.5% with a narrow lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition surging to 47% (up 4% points).
For the National-led Government support for National was down 3% points to 33.5% - the lowest support for National since last year’s New Zealand Election, support for ACT decreased 1.5% points to 9.5% while support for NZ First was unchanged at 5.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour jumped 5.5% points to 30% - Labour’s highest support for nearly a year since June 2023, support for the Greens was up 1% point to 14% and support for the Maori Party was down 2.5% points to 3%.
A further 4.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 3% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1.5% (down 0.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win 61 seats compared to 59 seats for Labour/ Greens/ Maori
The survey results for May would lead to 61 seats (down seven seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 59 seats (up four seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 42 seats (down seven seats), support for ACT would equal 12 seats (up one seat) and NZ First would win seven seats (down one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 38 seats (up four seats), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and the Maori Party would win four seats (down two seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 925 electors from April 22 – May 19, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3% (down 1.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 10.5pts to 96 in May
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 10.5ts to 96 in May as sentiment improved for a second straight month. Now 43% (up 8.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while 47% (down 2% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 2.8pts to 84.9 and is still above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 80.2 on May 20-26, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women clearly favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 60%, almost double the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 33.5% - a gap of 26.5% points.
In contrast, women are heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 58.5% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 39% - a gap of 19.5% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 64% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First almost double the 33.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (44.5%) and ACT (14%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is also strong support for the governing coalition with 56.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 33.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Women aged 50+ are narrowly in favour of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 51% compared to the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 45.5% - a gap of 5.5% points.
Younger women aged 18-49 are the biggest supporters of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 65.5% almost double the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 33.5%.
Support for both the Labour Party (39%) and Greens (22.5%) is strongest amongst this age and gender group. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October 2023 were drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | May 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 33.5 | 28 | 25 | 31 | 40 | 36 | 44.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 13 | 14 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 48.5 | 39 | 33 | 45.5 | 60 | 56.5 | 64 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 30 | 38 | 39 | 36.5 | 21 | 18.5 | 24 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 14 | 16 | 22.5 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 8.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 3 | 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 47 | 58.5 | 65.5 | 51 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 10 | 2.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 43 | 35 | 31 | 39 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 47 | 56 | 62 | 49 | 38 | 38 | 38.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 96 | 79 | 69 | 90 | 113.5 | 113.5 | 113 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is well above 100 for men, but well below 100 for women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 10.5ts to 96 in May 2024 – an increase of 15pts over the last two months since hitting a low of 81 in March 2024.
A majority of men, 51.5% (up 6.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 38% (down 2% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 113.5 (up 8.5pts). The Government Confidence for older men aged 50+ was down 0.5pts to 113. However, there was a far larger increase for younger men aged 18-49, up 34pts to 113.5.
Among women overall now a majority of 56% (up 3.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just over a third, 35% (up 5.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 79 (up 2pts).
The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 4.5pts to 69 – the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while Government Confidence was virtually unchanged at 90 for women aged 50+.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the honeymoon is over for New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon with support for the National-led governing coalition falling below 50% for the first time since last September’s election in the month of May:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First has fallen 4.5% points to 48.5% in May and now has only a narrow lead over the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 47% (up 4% points).
“This is the lowest level of support for the National-led Government since winning last year’s New Zealand Election and support for National has dropped by 3% points to only 33.5% – its lowest level of support for Christopher Luxon’s party since he became Prime Minister.
“The decrease in support for National came after Luxon sacked two under-performing cabinet ministers in late April less than six months after taking the country’s top job. Although Luxon portrayed the action as indicating his strength and ability to adapt to changing circumstances, critics have countered that it shows a Government in disarray and struggling to establish itself.
“The news for Labour is far better with support for the party jumping 5.5% points to 30% in May – the highest level of support for the party for nearly a year since June 2023.
“If these results were repeated at an election the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition would win 61 seats to retain Government by the narrowest margin over the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 59 seats – a majority of only one seat.
“The massive gender split in support continues with three-fifths of men, 60%, supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only a third, 33.5%, supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a massive difference of 26.5% points.
“In contrast, a majority of 58.5% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 39% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a difference of 19.5% points. This represents a massive 46% points difference between men and women.
“Different gender and age groups favour different parties. Older men aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of both National (44.5%) and ACT (14%). In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the largest supporters of Labour (39%) and the Greens (22.5%).
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumped 10.5pts to 96 in May. This was a second consecutive monthly increase and the measure has now improved by 15pts since hitting a low of only 81 in March when New Zealand was confirmed as being in recession.
“However, despite the improvement, a plurality of 47% of New Zealanders say ‘the country is going in the wrong direction’ compared to 43% that say ‘the country is going in the right direction.’
“As for voting intentions, Government Confidence Ratings in May remain heavily split by gender. Men aged 50+ have a Government Confidence Rating of 113 and men aged 18-49 have a similar Government Confidence Rating of 113.5 – both clearly in positive territory.
“In contrast, Government Confidence amongst women remains stuck well below the neutral level of 100 and deep in negative territory. Women aged 50+ have a Government Confidence Rating of 90 and women aged 18-49 have a Government Confidence Rating of only 69. These ratings indicate that large majorities of women say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction.’”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
