National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for April 2024 shows the new National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 53% (down 3% points from March) with a large lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 43% (up 2.5% points).
For the National-led Government support for National was down 1.5% to 36.5%, support for ACT decreased 0.5% points to 11% and support for NZ First was down 1% to 5.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was up 1.5% to 24.5% while support for the Greens was 0.5% to 13% and support for the Maori Party was up 1.5% points to 5.5%.
A further 4% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2% (down 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 2% (up 1%) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Current level of support for National/ ACT/ NZ First would translate to 66 seats in Parliament
The survey results for April would lead to 66 seats (down two seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 54 seats (down one seat) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 45 seats (down four seats), support for ACT would equal 14 seats (up three seats) and NZ First would win seven seats (down one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 31 seats (down three seats), Greens support would mean 16 seats (up one seat) and the Maori Party would win seven seats (up one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 934 electors from March 25 – April 21, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4.5% (up 2% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increases 4.5pts to 85.5 in April
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 4.5ts to 85.5 in April as sentiment improved after plunging in March. Now 34.5% (down 0.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while 49% (down 5% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 4.3pts to 82.1 and is still above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 81.1 on April 22-28, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women narrowly favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of the new National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 63.5%, almost double the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 32.5%.
In contrast, women marginally favour the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 54% - a comparably small 11.5% points ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 42.5%.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 76% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First almost four times as many as the 20% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (49.5%), ACT (18%) and NZ First (8.5%), is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is also strong support for the governing coalition with 52% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 43.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Women aged 50+ are clearly behind the new governing coalition with a majority of 54% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 41% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. The Labour Party has its strongest support amongst this demographic attracting 31% support.
However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the opposition Labour/Greens/Maori on 65.5% well ahead of the governing National/ACT/ NZ First coalition on 32%.
This demographic is the core of support for the Greens at 24.5%, almost double the support the Greens attract from the overall population. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October 2023 were drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | April 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 36.5 | 28 | 14.5 | 42.5 | 45.5 | 41.5 | 49.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 5.5 | 12 | 6.5 | 18 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 53 | 42.5 | 32 | 54 | 63.5 | 52 | 76 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 24.5 | 28 | 25 | 31 | 21.5 | 25.5 | 16.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13 | 16.5 | 24.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 16 | 2.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 16 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 43 | 54 | 65.5 | 41 | 32.5 | 43.5 | 20 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 34.5 | 29.5 | 25 | 34 | 40 | 31 | 51 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 49 | 52.5 | 60.5 | 43.5 | 45 | 51.5 | 37.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 85.5 | 77 | 64.5 | 90.5 | 95 | 79.5 | 113.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 16.5 | 18 | 14.5 | 22.5 | 15 | 17.5 | 11.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for older men, but under 100 for everyone else
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 4.5ts to 85.5 in April 2024 – a small rebound after a massive plunge of 17pts in March.
A plurality of men, 45% (unchanged) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while almost as many, 40% (down 6.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 95 (down 6.5pts). The Government Confidence for older men aged 50+ was up 5pts to 113.5. However, there was a larger decrease for younger men aged 18-49, down 16pts to 79.5 – and down by a massive 35pts over the last two months for this gender and age group.
Among women overall now a majority of 52.5% (down 10% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just over a quarter, 29.5% (up 6% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 77 (up 16pts).
The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 6pts to 64.5 – the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while Government Confidence jumped 27pts to 90.5 for women aged 50+.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says despite a fall in support for the National-led Government (53%) in March it retains a massive 10% point lead over the Parliamentary Opposition of Labour/Greens/Maori (43%):
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition is down 3% points to 53% in April but the National-led Government still retains a huge 10% points lead over the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 43% (up 2.5%).
“The massive gender split in support continues with almost two-thirds of men, 63.5%, supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 32.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a massive difference of 31% points.
“In contrast, a small majority of 54% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 42.5% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a difference of 11.5% points. Overall, this represents a 42.5% points difference between men and women.
“Different gender and age groups favour different parties. Older men aged 50+ are the strongest supporters of National (49.5%), ACT (18%) and NZ First (8.5%). In contrast, older women aged 50+ are the largest supporters of Labour (31%) while younger women aged 18-49 are easily the biggest supporters of the Greens (24.5%).
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating improved 4.5pts to 85.5 in April. This was a small increase after a massive plunge of 17pts in March which came as the New Zealand economy was confirmed as being in recession during the second half of 2023.
“Unsurprisingly considering the country is now in a recession, a clear plurality of 49% of New Zealanders say ‘the country is going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 34.5% that say ‘the country is going in the right direction.’
“The slight rise in the Government Confidence Rating in April was driven largely by women – up 16pts to 77. Government Confidence for older women aged 50+ increased by a massive 27pts to 90.5 and for women aged 18-49 was up 6pts to only 64.5 – easily the lowest of any gender and age group analysed.
“In contrast, Government Confidence amongst men remained significantly higher during April, but actually fell slightly from a month ago – down 6.5pts to 95. For men aged 50+ Government Confidence increased 5pts to 113.5 – and once again the only gender and age group with a positive view on the direction of the country. For men aged 18-49 Government Confidence dropped by 16pts to 79.5 and is now down by a massive 35pts over the last two months.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
