National/ ACT/ NZ First (51.5%) strengthen lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42%
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for January 2024 shows the new National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 51.5% (unchanged from December) with a large lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 42% (down 0.5% points).
Support for National was up 2% to 38% (matching their performance at the 2023 NZ election), while support for ACT dropped 2% points to 7.5% (the lowest level of support for ACT for three years since February 2021) and support for NZ First was unchanged at 6%.
Support for Labour was unchanged at 22% while support for the Greens was unchanged at 15.5% - the equal highest level of support for the Greens for over a year since October 2022 and support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 4.5%.
A further 6.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament, unchanged from November. This includes 4.5% (up 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 2% (down 0.5%) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Current level of support for National/ ACT/ NZ First would translate to 66 seats in Parliament
The survey results for January would lead to 66 seats (down two seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 54 seats (down one seat) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 49 seats (unchanged), support for ACT would equal 10 seats (down one seat) and NZ First would win seven seats (down one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 28 seats (down six seats), Greens support would mean 20 seats (up five seats) and the Maori Party would win 8 seats (unchanged).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 966 electors from January 8-28, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3% (up 1.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumps into positive territory above 100
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 8pts to 101 in January to its highest for two years since January 2022 (106.5). This is also the first time the indicator has been in positive territory above the neutral level of 100 for two years.
In January, 42% (up 4% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while 41% (down 4% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 0.5pts to 93.6 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 83.8 on Jan. 30 – Feb. 5, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women narrowly favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of the new National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 57.5%, over 20% points in front of the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 35%.
In contrast, women marginally favour the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 48% just ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 46%.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest among men aged 50+ with 69% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First more than double the 29.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for National (48%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed. This group also has the highest support for ACT on 15% - higher than the support for the Labour Party which registers only 13.5% in this demographic.
Younger men aged 18-49 also favour the governing coalition with 46.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 40.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Women aged 50+ are clearly behind the new governing coalition with a majority of 55% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 40.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. The Labour Party has its strongest support amongst this demographic attracting 28% support.
However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the governing Labour/Greens on 56.5% well ahead of the governing National/ACT/ NZ First coalition on 35.5%.
This demographic is the core of support for the Greens at 28%, over 10% points higher support than the Greens attract from any other gender and age group analysed. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October are drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Dec. 2023 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 38 | 35.5 | 27.5 | 42.5 | 40.5 | 33.5 | 48 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 12 | 9.5 | 15 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 3.5 | 6.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 51.5 | 46 | 35.5 | 55 | 57.5 | 46.5 | 69 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 22 | 24 | 20 | 28 | 19 | 24.5 | 13.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 15.5 | 18.5 | 28 | 9.5 | 12 | 15 | 8.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 42 | 48 | 56.5 | 40.5 | 35 | 40.5 | 29.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6 | 8 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 13 | 1.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 42 | 39.5 | 36 | 43 | 44 | 38 | 52 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 41 | 46 | 53.5 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 38 | 34 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 101 | 93.5 | 82.5 | 105.5 | 107.5 | 100 | 118 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 17 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 24 | 14 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for older men (118) and women (105.5)
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumped 8pts to 101 in January 2024.
A plurality of men, 44% (up 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 36.5% (down 1.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 107.5 (up 2pts) and up a massive 40.5pts since the New Zealand Election.
The Government Confidence Rating of older men aged 50+ increased 13pts to 118. Younger men aged 18-49 now have Government Confidence of 100, following a decrease of 6pts in January.
Among women overall now a plurality of 46% (down 5.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 39.5% (up 7% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 93.5 (up 12.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 11pts to 82.5 while it surged 14pts to 105.5 for women aged 50+.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the honeymoon continues for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s new National-led Government (51.5%) with the coalition enjoying an almost 10% points lead over the Parliamentary Opposition (42%):
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition was unchanged at 51.5% in January and easily maintaining a commanding lead over the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 42% (down 0.5%).
“The massive gender split in support continues with a clear majority of men, 57.5%, supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 35% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a difference of 22.5% points.
“In contrast, a plurality of 48% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 46% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a difference of only 2% points. Overall, this represents a 24.5% points difference between men and women.
“This difference is starkest for younger New Zealanders. Men aged 18-49 support the governing coalition by 6% points over the Parliamentary Opposition while women of that age support the Parliamentary Opposition by 21% points – an overall gender difference of 27% points.
“Different gender and age groups favour different parties. Older men aged 50+ provide the highest support for both National (48%) and ACT (15%). In contrast, older women aged 50+ are the largest supporter of Labour (28%).
“Younger people aged 18-49 are the strongest supporters of the Greens and it is younger women aged 18-49 who support the Greens (28%) more than any other party – just ahead of National (27.5%). Younger men are also big supporters of the Greens (15%), but not to the same degree as their female counterparts.
“There was good news for the Luxon Government when it comes to the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which increased 8pts to 101 – the first time this indicator has been in positive territory for two years since January 2022.
“Now 42% of New Zealanders say ‘the country is going in the right direction’ compared to only 41% that say ‘the country is going in the wrong direction.’. Roy Morgan Government Confidence has now improved by a massive 32.5 points since hitting a low of only 68.5 in July 2023.
“The Government Confidence Rating is higher for men (107.5) than women (93.5). This difference is driven by men aged 50+ (118) who have clearly the highest Government Confidence ahead of women aged 50+ (105.5), men aged 18-49 (100) and women aged 18-49 (82.5).”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
