National, ACT and NZ First increase their level of support in first Roy Morgan Poll after NZ Election
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for November 2023 shows new Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 58% support for November, up 5.2% points from the mid-October election.
Support for National was virtually unchanged at 37.5%, down 0.6% points from the election, while support for ACT increased 3.9% points to 12.5% and support for NZ First was up 1.9% points to 8%.
In November support for the defeated Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition was at only 36%, down 5.6% points from the election.
Support for Labour dropped 5.9% points to 21% (the lowest ever recorded in a Roy Morgan Poll). However, support for the Greens increased 0.9% points to 12.5% while support for the Maori Party was down 0.6% points to 2.5%.
A further 6% of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament, up 0.4% points from the election. This includes 3.5% (up 1.3% points) who support The Opportunities Party, 0.5% (up 0.3% points) who support the New Conservatives and a further 2% who support other minor parties including Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Current level of support for National/ ACT/ NZ First would translate to 74 seats in Parliament
The survey results for November would lead to 74 seats (up six seats) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 48 seats (down seven seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 48 seats (down one seat), support for ACT would equal 16 seats (up one seat) and the support for NZ First would mean 10 seats (up two seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 27 seats (down seven seats), Greens support would mean 16 seats (up one seat) and the Maori Party would win 5 seats (down one seat)
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 920 electors during November 2023. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5% did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumps 17pts to 90.5 after NZ Election
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 17pts to 90.5 in November to its highest for nine months since February 2023 (95) – the month after former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned.
After the NZ Election, 36.5% (up 5.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while 46% (down 11.5% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 3.8pts to 91.9 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 80.8 on December 4-10, 2023.
Men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First by a margin of over 2:1 compared to Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of the new National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 66%, more than double the support for the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 27%.
In contrast, support among women is more evenly split with a bare majority of 50.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 44.5% supporting Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest among men aged 50+ at a rate of almost 3:1 with 72% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to only 25.5% supporting Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Two parties stand out within this demographic with support for both National (44.5%) and NZ First (10%) higher amongst this group of older men than any other age or gender group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 are also heavily in favour of the governing coalition at a rate of more than 2:1 with 61% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to only 28.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. This demographic is also the core support for ACT with the party securing 22.5% support from younger men – the second most widely supported party for this group behind National on 32%.
Women aged 50+ are clearly behind the new governing coalition with a clear majority of 57% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to only 39% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. The Labour Party has its strongest support amongst this demographic attracting 28% support.
However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the governing Labour/Greens on 57.5% almost double a potential National/ACT coalition on 29.5%.
This demographic is the core of support for the Greens at 24%, more than double the support the Greens attract from any other gender and age group analysed. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October are drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | November 2023 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 32.5 | 42 | 38 | 32 | 44.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 20 | 22.5 | 17.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 8 | 7.5 | 5 | 9.5 | 8 | 6.5 | 10 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 58 | 50.5 | 42.5 | 57 | 66 | 61 | 72 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 21 | 27 | 25 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 16.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 12.5 | 15.5 | 24 | 8.5 | 9 | 9.5 | 8.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 36 | 44.5 | 51.5 | 39 | 27 | 28.5 | 25.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 10.5 | 2.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 36.5 | 34.5 | 36.5 | 32 | 38 | 34.5 | 43 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 46 | 48 | 48.5 | 47 | 44 | 47 | 40 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 90.5 | 86.5 | 88 | 85 | 94 | 87.5 | 103 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 18.5 | 17 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumps the most for older men, up 42pts to 103
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating leapt by 17pts to 90.5 in November.
A plurality of men, 44% (down 17% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 38% (up 10% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 94 (jumping 27pts).
The Government Confidence Rating of older men aged 50+ jumped 42pts to 103 – the only gender and age group with Government Confidence in positive territory above 100. Younger men aged 18-49 now have Government Confidence of 87.5, an increase post-election of 15.5pts.
Among women overall now a large plurality of 48% (down 6% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while a virtually unchanged 34.5% (up 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 86.5 (up 6.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 7pts to 86.5 while it was up 5pts to 85 for women aged 50+.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says new Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s new government – the sixth National-led Government in history – has provided an immediate boost to confidence in the country, although confidence levels are still low, well below 100:
“The New Zealand election in late October saw a three-party coalition of National-ACT-NZ First win government only six years after former National Prime Minister Bill English lost office in 2017.
“National leader Christopher Luxon became New Zealand’s 42nd Prime Minister in late November after stitching up deals with ACT Leader David Seymour and NZ First Leader Winston Peters – with both Seymour and Peters to share Deputy Prime Ministerial duties for 18 months each.
“The downfall of the previous Labour-led Government came swiftly after riding high and winning a majority of the vote at the 2020 New Zealand Election – the first time any party has managed to do this under the Mixed Member Proportional electoral system used since 1996.
“After losing the election in October the Labour-led Government of Jacinda Ardern, and her successor Chris Hipkins, was the shortest-lived Government in New Zealand for nearly fifty years since the Labour-led Government of Norman Kirk and Bill Rowling in the early 1970s.
“The new Government has enjoyed an immediate boost in support after winning the election with support for the governing National-ACT-NZ First coalition already up 5.2% points in November to 58% – even before the coalition agreement was officially concluded.
“Support for the outgoing Labour party continued to fall in November, crashing a further 5.9% points to only 21%. This is the lowest level of support the left-wing Labour Party has ever registered in a Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.
“The Parliamentary Opposition, consisting of Labour-Greens-Maori Party attracted the support of 36% of electors in November, down 5.6% points from the election. Most of the lost support was due to the drop in support for Labour. Support for the Greens actually increased, up 0.9% points to 12.5%. Support for the Maori Party was down 0.6% points to 2.5%.
“There was also a big boost to the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – up 17pts to 90.5. This is the highest rating for Government Confidence since February 2023 (95) – just after former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned from the top job and left the Parliament.
“Driving this increase were older men aged 50+ – their Government Confidence leapt 42pts to 103 – the highest of any gender and age group analysed. Older men aged 50+ are now the only gender and age group with Government Confidence in positive territory above the level of 100.
“The big boost to confidence in this demographic group is not surprising when one considers that both National (44.5%) and NZ First (10%) have their highest level of support amongst this group. Support for ACT is highest amongst younger men aged 18-49 at an impressive 22.5%.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
