New Zealand: Labour/Greens level with National/Act NZ on 45.5% each after Chris Hipkins becomes Prime Minister

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for February 2023 shows support increased for the governing Labour Party in February, up 3% points to 33% and support for the governing Labour-led Government was up 3.5% to 45.5%.

Support for the Labour-led Government is now level with the National/Act NZ opposition, also on 45.5%, unchanged from January.

The results for February show the New Zealand Election later in 2022 is on a knife-edge with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.

The main Opposition National has maintained its support in February, unchanged on 32% while support for potential governing partners Act NZ is also unchanged on 13.5%. Support for the Greens has increased slightly, up 0.5% to 12.5% in February.

Maori Party in the box seat to determine New Zealand’s next Government

The results for February suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party on 3.5%, down 1% point.

Support for New Zealand First has fallen short of the 5% threshold in February at 2%, down 3% points from February and not enough to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.

A further 3.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 0.5% points from a month ago including 2.5% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and 0.5% (unchanged) who support the New Conservative Party.

A potential 58 seats for a Labour/Greens coalition and 58 seats for a potential National/Act NZ coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government

If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the Labour/Greens coalition would score 58 seats, level with the 58 seats for a potential National/Act NZ coalition – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.

The projected results show the Maori Party with 4 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 943 electors during February. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2.5%, down 1.5% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 4pts to 95 in February

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up by 4pts to 95 in February – its highest level for a year since February 2022 (95).

In February 2023 a clear plurality of 47.5% (down 1.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just over two-fifths, 42.5% (up 2.5% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 3.6pts to 79.8 and is just below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 79.9 on February 27 – March 5, 2023.

Men heavily favour a National/Act NZ coalition while women are in favour of Labour/Greens

A majority of 52.5% of men support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition – a sizeable gap of 14.5% points over the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 38%.

There was a split between men of different ages. Men between the ages of 18-49 narrowly support a potential Labour/Greens coalition on 46.5% compared to 40% supporting National/Act NZ.

However, there was overwhelming support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition amongst men aged 50+ on 65% compared to only 29.5% supporting a Labour/Greens coalition.

A majority of women of all ages are in favour of a potential Labour/Greens coalition. A majority of 53% of women aged 18-49 support a potential Labour/Greens coalition compared to 36% who support the opposition National/Act NZ on 38%.

There is an even closer result for women aged 50+ with a slim majority of 51% supporting a Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 43% supporting a potential National/Act NZ on 43%.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. One-in-five women aged 18-49 (20%) and over one-in-five men aged 18-49 (21%) support the Greens compared to only 6.5% of women aged 50+ and just 2% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 2% of men including 4.5% support from men aged 18-49 but little support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of women including 6.5% of women aged 18-49 and 1.5% of women aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 72 in February

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased for a second straight month in February, up 4ps to 95 with the largest increases amongst men.

A large plurality of men, 49.5% (down 4.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just over two-fifths of men, 41.5% (up 4% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 92 (up 8.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was up by 7pts to 109.5 while for older men aged 50+ it was at only 72, up by 9.5pts.

Among women overall now a plurality of 45.5% (up 1% point) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 43.5% (up 1.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 98 (up 0.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down slightly by 4.5pts to 104 while it was up by 5.5pts to 91 for women aged 50+.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the resignation of former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s in mid-January has led to a clear boost in support for the Labour-led Government under new Prime Minister Chris Hipkins:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

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