Roy Morgan Research
March 10, 2023

New Zealand: Labour/Greens level with National/Act NZ on 45.5% each after Chris Hipkins becomes Prime Minister

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9202

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for February 2023 shows support increased for the governing Labour Party in February, up 3% points to 33% and support for the governing Labour-led Government was up 3.5% to 45.5%.

Support for the Labour-led Government is now level with the National/Act NZ opposition, also on 45.5%, unchanged from January.

The results for February show the New Zealand Election later in 2022 is on a knife-edge with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.

The main Opposition National has maintained its support in February, unchanged on 32% while support for potential governing partners Act NZ is also unchanged on 13.5%. Support for the Greens has increased slightly, up 0.5% to 12.5% in February.

Maori Party in the box seat to determine New Zealand’s next Government

The results for February suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party on 3.5%, down 1% point.

Support for New Zealand First has fallen short of the 5% threshold in February at 2%, down 3% points from February and not enough to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.

A further 3.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 0.5% points from a month ago including 2.5% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and 0.5% (unchanged) who support the New Conservative Party.

A potential 58 seats for a Labour/Greens coalition and 58 seats for a potential National/Act NZ coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government

If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the Labour/Greens coalition would score 58 seats, level with the 58 seats for a potential National/Act NZ coalition – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.

The projected results show the Maori Party with 4 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 943 electors during February. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2.5%, down 1.5% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 4pts to 95 in February

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up by 4pts to 95 in February – its highest level for a year since February 2022 (95).

In February 2023 a clear plurality of 47.5% (down 1.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just over two-fifths, 42.5% (up 2.5% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

Men heavily favour a National/Act NZ coalition while women are in favour of Labour/Greens

A majority of 52.5% of men support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition – a sizeable gap of 14.5% points over the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 38%.

There was a split between men of different ages. Men between the ages of 18-49 narrowly support a potential Labour/Greens coalition on 46.5% compared to 40% supporting National/Act NZ.

However, there was overwhelming support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition amongst men aged 50+ on 65% compared to only 29.5% supporting a Labour/Greens coalition.

A majority of women of all ages are in favour of a potential Labour/Greens coalition. A majority of 53% of women aged 18-49 support a potential Labour/Greens coalition compared to 36% who support the opposition National/Act NZ on 38%.

There is an even closer result for women aged 50+ with a slim majority of 51% supporting a Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 43% supporting a potential National/Act NZ on 43%.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. One-in-five women aged 18-49 (20%) and over one-in-five men aged 18-49 (21%) support the Greens compared to only 6.5% of women aged 50+ and just 2% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 2% of men including 4.5% support from men aged 18-49 but little support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of women including 6.5% of women aged 18-49 and 1.5% of women aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

  Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 33 38.5 33 44.5 26.5 25.5 27.5
Greens 12.5 13.5 20 6.5 11.5 21 2
Labour/ Greens 45.5 52 53 51 38 46.5 29.5
               
National 32 32 28 36 32.5 23 42.5
Act NZ 13.5 7.5 8 7 20 17 22.5
National/ Act NZ 45.5 39.5 36 43 52.5 40 65
               
Maori Party 3.5 4 6.5 1.5 2 4.5
NZ First 2 2 1.5 3 2.5 2.5 2
Others 3.5 2.5 3 1.5 5 6.5 3.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 42.5 43.5 46.5 39.5 41.5 49.5 32
Wrong Direction 47.5 45.5 42.5 48.5 49.5 40 60
Government Confidence Rating 95 98 104 91 92 109.5 72
Can’t say 10 11 11 12 9 10.5 8
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 72 in February

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased for a second straight month in February, up 4ps to 95 with the largest increases amongst men.

A large plurality of men, 49.5% (down 4.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just over two-fifths of men, 41.5% (up 4% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 92 (up 8.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was up by 7pts to 109.5 while for older men aged 50+ it was at only 72, up by 9.5pts.

Among women overall now a plurality of 45.5% (up 1% point) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 43.5% (up 1.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 98 (up 0.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down slightly by 4.5pts to 104 while it was up by 5.5pts to 91 for women aged 50+.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the resignation of former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s in mid-January has led to a clear boost in support for the Labour-led Government under new Prime Minister Chris Hipkins:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a Labour-led Government in coalition with the Greens rising to 45.5% in February, up 3.5% points from January, and up 7% points since December 2022 before former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned.

“The governing Labour/Greens coalition is now deadlocked with the potential National/Act NZ governing coalition also on 45.5% in February, unchanged from January, but down 4% points since December 2022.

“If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election both Labour/Greens and National/Act NZ would hold 58 seats in the 120 seat Parliament – just 3 seats short of a governing majority. This potential result means the support of minor parties could well be crucial to determining who will emerge as New Zealand’s next Government later this year.

“The Maori Party is currently in the box seat with 3.5% support set to give the party four seats in the Parliament and a decisive roll in selecting New Zealand’s next Government. At the moment the current indications are that the Maori Party would be likely to side with the incumbent Labour/ Greens governing coalition.

“In contrast, the right-leaning New Zealand First has lost support in February, down 3% points to only 2% – not enough to attain the 5% threshold of support that would guarantee the party seats in Parliament and a role in determining the next Government. If New Zealand First can recover ground and gain at least 5% support they will also likely have a role to play in selecting which side of politics forms Government later this year.

“Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon has been favoured to win this year’s election since taking over late in 2021, but the change in Prime Minister has clearly had a big impact on the political landscape. This month’s Roy Morgan Poll shows Labour on 33%, up 3% points since January and up 5.5% points since December ahead of National on 32%, unchanged from a month ago but down 3% points since December.

“This is the first time since December 2021 that Labour has had higher support than National.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

  Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National & Act NZ)
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* 57.87 33.17
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL    
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020
2021    
January 2021 58.5 34
February 2021 58.5 36.5
March 2021 57.5 34
April 2021 55 38.5
May 2021 56 37.5
June 2021 51 41
July 2021 49.5 42
August 2021 51.5 38
September 2021 55 39
October 2021 50 42
November 2021 46.5 44
December 2021 44 50
2022    
January 2022 43.5 48.5
February 2022 43 49.5
March 2022 42.5 47
April 2022 44 47.5
May 2022 43 50
June 2022 43.5 48.5
July 2022 44.5 46
August 2022 44 46
September 2022 42 48.5
October 2022 44.5 44.5
November 2022 37.5 50
December 2022 38.5 49.5
2023    
January 2023 42 45.5
February 2023 45.5 45.5

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

PARTY VOTE Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First TOP** Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
                 
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a 13.35 n/a 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a 4.26 n/a 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a 10.38 n/a 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 5.72 n/a 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 4.07 n/a 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 6.59 n/a 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 8.66 n/a 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 7.20 2.44 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 2.60 1.51 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL                
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021                
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 2 1.5 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1.5 1 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2.5 2 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 1 0.5 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 2 1.5 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 1.5 2 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 2 3 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2.5 2 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 2.5 1 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 2.5 1.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 2 1 2
2022                
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 2 1 2.5
March 2022 32 10.5 38 9 2 4 1.5 3
April 2022 33.5 10.5 37.5 10 1.5 2.5 2 2.5
May 2022 31.5 11.5 40 10 1 3 1 2
June 2022 33.5 10 39 9.5 1.5 1.5 2 3
July 2022 34 10.5 35 11 4 1.5 2.5 1.5
August 2022 35 9 35.5 10.5 5 1.5 1 2.5
September 2022 29.5 12.5 36 12.5 3.5 1 2.5 2.5
October 2022 29 15.5 32 12.5 3 3.5 3 1.5
November 2022 25.5 12 39 11 4 3.5 2.5 2.5
December 2022 27.5 11 35 14.5 4 4 2.5 1.5
2023                
January 2023 30 12 32 13.5 4.5 5 1.5 1.5
February 2023 33 12.5 32 13.5 3.5 2 2.5 1

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

SEAT COUNT Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % %
               
October 12, 1996* 37 0 44 8 0 17 14*
November 27, 1999 49 7 39 9 0 5 11*
July 27, 2002 52 9 27 9 0 13 10*
September 17, 2005 50 6 48 2 4 7 4*
November 8, 2008 43 9 58 5 5 0 2*
November 26, 2011 34 14 59 1 3 8 2*
September 20, 2014 32 14 60 1 2 11 1*
September 23, 2017 46 8 56 1 0 9 0
October 17, 2020 65 10 33 10 2 0 0
ROY MORGAN

SEAT PREDICTOR

             
2021              
April 2021 52 17 37 11 3 0 0
May 2021 57 14 36 11 2 0 0
June 2021 49 16 37 15 3 0 0
July 2021 50 13 37 17 3 0 0
August 2021 51 16 33 17 4 0 0
September 2021 57 12 29 20 2 0 0
October 2021 51 13 33 20 3 0 0
November 2021 46 14 34 22 4 0 0
December 2021 45 11 40 23 1 0 0
2022              
January 2022 42 13 45 17 3 0 0
February 2022 41 14 48 15 2 0 0
March 2022 42 14 50 12 2 0 0
April 2022 43 13 49 13 2 0 0
May 2022 40 15 51 13 1 0 0
June 2022 43 13 50 12 2 0 0
July 2022 43 13 45 14 5 0 0
August 2022 44 12 45 13 6 0 0
September 2022 38 16 46 16 4 0 0
October 2022 38 20 42 16 4 0 0
November 2022 34 16 51 14 5 0 0
December 2022 36 14 46 19 5 0 0
2023              
January 2023 37 15 40 17 5 6 0
February 2023 42 16 41 17 4 0 0

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)
  Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 66.5 68 58 59 60.5 77 76 72 71.5 71 70.5 68.5 69.5 71.5
Wrong direction 20 18 29.5 27 25.5 14 17.5 18.5 19 19 19.5 21 20 18
Roy Morgan GCR# 146.5 150 128.5 132 135 163 158.5 153.5 152.5 152 151 147.5 149.5 153.5
Can’t say 13.5 14 12.5 14 14 9 6.5 9.5 9.5 10 10 10.5 10.5 10.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021
Jun
2021
Jul
2021
Aug
2021
Sep
2021
Oct
2021
Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Mar
2022
Apr
2022
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 71.5 69.5 61.5 62.5 62.5 57 55.5 52.5 57 48 46 42.5 48.5 42.5 39 43
Wrong direction 18.5 20 26 26.5 28.5 33 34.5 37.5 32 38.5 44.5 44.5 42 47.5 51.5 49.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 153 149.5 135.5 136 134 124 121 115 125 109.5 101.5 98 106.5 95 87.5 93.5
Can’t say 10 10.5 12.5 11 9 10 10 10 11 13.5 9.5 13 9.5 10 9.5 7.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  May
2022
Jun
2022
Jul
2022
Aug
2022
Sep
2022
Oct
2022
Nov
2022
Dec
2022
Jan
2023
Feb
2023
Mar 2023 Apr 2023 May
2023
Jun
2023
Jul
2023
Aug
2023
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 40 39 40.5 37.5 37.5 42 35 32 40 42.5            
Wrong direction 50 51.5 51 53 51.5 50 55 57 49 47.5            
Roy Morgan GCR# 90 87.5 89.5 84.5 86 92 80 75 91 95            
Can’t say 10 9.5 8.5 9.5 11 8 10 11 11 10            
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:

Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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